In a game that could be a shootout, Drew Hutchison (13-3, 5.07 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (79-59) are in Boston to take on Joe Kelly (9-6, 4.84 ERA) and the Red Sox (65-73). This is the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 9 and can be seen on NESN and RSN.
Kelly pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs, striking out five and walking three in a 7-5 win over the Phillies. Mookie Betts (.285, 73 Rs, 13 HRs, 67 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Hutchison went 5.0 innings, surrendering six runs and striking out two in a 10-2 defeat to the Orioles in his most recent start. Josh Donaldson (.305, 108 Rs, 37 HRs, 115 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Toronto takes on Boston as a -120 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 10 runs. The Red Sox have an overall money line of -1,049 and a record as the underdog of 28-33. Boston has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 11-15 and 22-32 as the underdog and SU respectively. The Red Sox have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the AL in home offense with 5.4 runs per game. The Red Sox lead the AL in hits at home with an impressive 10.2 per game. Boston’s batters do not strike out very often, with only 6.8 per game. Boston’s pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 5.4 against fellow AL East members, compared to its 4.8 season average.
As for their opponent, Toronto is coming in with an overall money line of +742 and an impressive record of 59-31 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 7-3 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average 5.5 runs per game, which is tops in the AL. The Blue Jays are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the AL with 9.0 hits per game. Toronto is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 3.4 per game. When it comes to issuing walks, the Blue Jays have the fewest in the AL with only 2.5 walks allowed per game.
The Blue Jays lead the season series, 8-7. The Red Sox have a 48-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Hutchison takes the mound. Kelly (RHP) will be on the hill against the Blue Jays, who have a 59-47 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Toronto is 36-25, while Boston is 32-36.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 28-39 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 51-8. The Blue Jays have a 63-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto tops the league in runs with 756 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 636.
Ranking 15th, Boston is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 400 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at second with 473.
When the Red Sox hit at least one home run, they are 50-42. When the Blue Jays hit at least one homer, they have a 71-30 record.
