Rick Porcello (6-12, 5.21 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (64-72) go up against Mark Buehrle (14-6, 3.53 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (78-58) in the first of a three-game division series at Fenway Park. The game starts at 1:35 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 7 and will air on NESN and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Porcello pitched 8.0 innings, giving up one, striking out 13 and walking one in a 3-1 loss to the Yankees. David Ortiz (.268, 62 Rs, 31 HRs, 86 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. The Blue Jays were victorious over the Tigers 9-2 the last time Buehrle pitched. He went 6.0 innings, allowing one, striking out two and walking two. Josh Donaldson (.302, 105 Rs, 36 HRs, 114 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Blue Jays, going 2 for 3 yesterday with one run and two RBIs.
Boston is a +116 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have a 27-33 record and overall money line at -1,262. They have disappointing records of 10-15 as the underdog and 21-32 SU within their division. The Red Sox lead the AL in hits at home with 10.2 per game. Don’t expect the Boston hitters to swing wildly. They average only 6.9 strikeouts per game. Boston’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Red Sox have given up an average of 5.5 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 4.8.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Blue Jays come into this game with a solid win percentage of .659 when playing as the favorite (58-30) and an overall money line of +765. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-3 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 7-3. The Blue Jays are the number one overall scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far. Toronto is one of the top hitting teams in the AL with an average of 9.0 hits per contest. Toronto has an eye for the strike zone, averaging an AL-best 3.4 walks per game. Switching gears to Toronto’s pitching staff, they allow just 2.5 walks per game, good for tops in the AL.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Red Sox in their previous 13 games this season, earning a 7-6 record. The Red Sox will take on a left-hander (Buehrle) in this game and have a 16-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the right-hander Porcello. They sport a 58-46 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Toronto is 36-24, while Boston is 31-36.
The Blue Jays are coming into this meeting after a high-scoring game where they scored an impressive 10 runs. The Red Sox have a 1-15 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 50-8. The Blue Jays have a 62-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto tops the league in runs with 747 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 624.
Toronto tops the league in walks with 465 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 14th with 397.
The Red Sox are 49-41 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Blue Jays are 71-29 when they hit at least one homer.
