This has the makings of a shootout as the Bowling Green Falcons (7-2) play the Western Michigan Broncos (6-3). The nation’s second-leading passer, Matt Johnson (3,686 yards, 33 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Roger Lewis (1,224 yards, 12 TDs), will have a major impact on this contest. It will begin Wednesday, Nov 11 at 8:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESP2.
Western Michigan routed Ball State 54-7 last week. Corey Davis had a big game in the win, registering seven receptions for 163 yards and three TDs. Jamauri Bogan also had a big game with 171 rushing yards and two TDs on 18 attempts. Not to be outdone, Bowling Green won easily over Ohio 62-24. Travis Greene had an outstanding performance on the ground for the Falcons, gaining 106 yards and three TDs on 13 carries. Gehrig Dieter had a big game as well, totaling 136 receiving yards and two TDs on nine receptions.
Bowling Green is a four-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable.
Heading into Week 11 of the college football season, the Broncos are 6-3 for both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Broncos have records of 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS. Western Michigan has seen an increase in scoring in recent weeks compared to its 38.0 points per game average. Over the past five games, they’ve averaged 47 points per game. The Broncos passing game will face below-average pass coverage. The Falcons currently rank 108th in the nation with 268.7 passing yards allowed per game. As for the Western Michigan defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Falcons will be matching up against a stout Western Michigan pass defense, which only allowed 226.8 passing yards over their last five matchups. Keep an eye on Western Michigan to turn it up a notch during the third quarter, when they average 11.1 points per game. On special teams, Western Michigan has some playmakers. They average 112.7 return yards per game, 20th in Division I.
On the other side, the Falcons have 7-2 SU and ATS records this season. The Falcons went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over the last five games. If earlier games are any indication, the Falcons will throw the ball a lot. They average 430.2 passing yards per game, good enough for first in Division I. The Falcons are playing better defense than they have all year, only allowing 18 PPG over their last five games, which is well under their season average of 28.0 points. The Falcons usually get going immediately from the initial kickoff, averaging 9.7 points in the first quarter this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – Western Michigan, ATS Winner – Western Michigan
Notes
Western Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Western Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Western Michigan’s last 16 games at home.
Western Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Bowling Green.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Western Michigan’s last 6 games when playing Bowling Green.
Western Michigan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Bowling Green.
Bowling Green is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Western Michigan.
Bowling Green is 6-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Western Michigan is 6-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Western Michigan is only 1-2) SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, yet 3-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
The Western Michigan rushing attack is ranked 28th nationally, compared to the 65th-ranked run defense of Bowling Green.
