The Los Angeles Rams made yet another offseason splash, this time acquiring Brandin Cooks in a trade with the New England Patriots.
Patriots are trading WR Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round pick to LA Rams for the 23rd overall pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and a sixth-round pick, league sources told ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 3, 2018
This is the second consecutive offseason in which Cooks got traded for a first-round pick. Though he has frequently been pegged for a breakout season on the level of Antonio Brown, things have never come together on that level for Cooks. Once again, his talent and potential production will earn him a high price tag on draft day. It’s probably best to let someone else pay it.
Reasons to Get Excited
Season to Season Consistency
For all of the frustration that comes with owning Cooks, he tends to have decent numbers at the end of the season.
Brandin Cooks has 1,000 Rec yds & 7 TD in each of the last 3 seasons. The only other player in the NFL to hit those marks every year since 2015 is Antonio Brown. https://t.co/4w8iQtdYkG
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 3, 2018
That is perhaps the best that can be said about Cooks. Even if his production disappoints, he’s not a complete failure that ends up on the waiver wire midseason. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year and always brings week-winning potential to the table.
History vs. NFC West
In six career games against NFC West opponents, Cooks is averaging 12.08 yards per target. That’s his highest average by far, with the AFC South coming in second at 10.76. He has four touchdowns in five games against Arizona, San Francisco and Seattle. He’ll also face a few other opponents he has torched in the past, including the Raiders, Broncos and Eagles. A favorable schedule should lead to more high-ceiling weeks for Cooks.
Youth
Cooks won’t turn 25 until September. It’s easy to forget that considering he’s entering his fifth NFL season. It’s likely he still hasn’t rounded into the prime seasons of his career. If we truly haven’t seen his best yet, he’ll be a nightmare for opposing secondaries.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Week to Week Inconsistency
Cooks’ reputation as a boom-bust receiver didn’t dissipate when he landed in New England. Though he had 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns, he was held under 40 yards with no touchdowns six times. For a WR1 price tag, his owners would have been better served leaving him on the bench for 40 percent of the season. The highs often don’t justify the lows.
Recent History of Rams’ Receivers
The Rams have had one 1,000-yard receiver since 2008. That was Kenny Britt, who picked up 1,002 yards in 2016. Even in 2017, when the Rams were 10th in passing offense and Jared Goff made the Pro Bowl, no one could do better than Cooper Kupp’s 869 yards. If the Rams are looking to spread the ball around like that again, this could be Cooks’ most volatile season yet.
Replacing Watkins
Cooks is set to become the Rams’ new “X” receiver, replacing the departed Sammy Watkins. They are both talented, but different types of players. Watkins caught a career-high seven red zone touchdowns with the Rams and has 12 total in 52 career games. He did that catching passes from Tyrod Taylor and Jared Goff in run-heavy offenses.
Cooks has 10 red zone touchdowns in 58 games with Hall of Fame quarterbacks in pass-heavy offenses. He hasn’t needed red zone touchdowns in the past, but Watkins would have been droppable without them. He was fourth on the team with 593 receiving yards. Assuming Watkins’ role doesn’t bode well for Cooks, who will need deep passes to justify the investment.
Conclusion
As a top-12 fantasy receiver in each of the last three seasons, Cooks deserves our attention. The problem is he put up those numbers in ideal situations for a receiver. The Rams are a good team that look to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but Jared Goff isn’t Drew Brees or Tom Brady and Cooks might see a career-low in targets. The Rams couldn’t get Watkins going except inside the red zone, which is also worrisome for Cooks’ fantasy value. He’s worth having, but more as a WR2 with upside than a WR1.
