Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski is a very interesting fight with many implications.
The Heavyweight Landscape
Before we break down the match up taking place Sunday, let’s talk implications for Alistair Overeem, Andrei Arlovski, and some other key heavyweights. In the UFC’s heavyweight division, we have current champion Fabricio Werdum defending his heavyweight gold against Stipe Miocic at UFC 198. In terms of a number one contender, we will have to wait and see the outcomes of two bouts. The first bout that may decide the number one contender is the one we have here – Alistair Overeem vs. Andrei Arlovski. If Overeem wins, he could very well be the next to challenge for UFC gold considering he would then be on a four-fight winning streak. Unfortunately, I doubt the same could be said for Arlovski if he wins as he was recently defeated by Miocic.
However, another very important bout to keep an eye on is Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne. If Velasquez wins, he may be the one getting the next crack at the gold considering he was already scheduled to face Werdum in a rematch before pulling out. But if Browne wins, things might get interesting. A win over the former champion Cain Velasquez would be a big feather in Browne’s cap even if his latest TKO win over Matt Mitrione came by controversial methods. Nevertheless, Browne could easily be thrown next in line if he defeats Velasquez.
The next number one contender could very well come down to who has the most impressive victory out of Overeem, Velasquez, or Browne.
Camp Drama
Much drama has been made out of this Overeem vs. Arlovski match up as they are both teammates at Jackson-Wink MMA. In fact, there is footage of them sparring together, and it first glance it seems they are friends. However, Overeem has been the one saying that they are not friends – only training partners. Nevertheless, this is a very interesting chemistry because it can be assumed that both fighters know each other very well. To make things more interesting, Greg Jackson has said that he will be cornering Arlovski for the fight, but both Arlovski and Overeem have still been training at his gym – just at different times.
It can thus be assumed that both Arlovski and Overeem will be very prepared for each other as they will be working with the same coaching staff throughout camp. The advantage that Arlovski will have is that all during fight week (and during the fight itself) he’ll be with the Jackson-Wink team while one can expect Overeem to bring in some outside talent. We know Overeem is a veteran of the fight game and has trained all over the world including at the Blackzilians and the infamous kickboxing gym Golden Glory. Overeem is experienced enough to know who he can trust and who he needs to help prepare him for this very important fight.
Experience
Once these two men step into the Octagon, all of this drama should evaporate and we’ll be left with two very talented, tested veterans of the game. Arlovski has a total of 37 professional MMA bouts while Overeem has 56 MMA bouts plus 15 professional kickboxing bouts. On the feet, these are two of the most experienced strikers, and I’m really hoping we get to see some good exchanges between the two. This high level of experience could result in a lot of feeling out and inactivity though. One only needs to re-watch Arlovski’s performances against Brendan Schaub and Frank Mir to see how he can get stuck watching instead of doing.
Chin
The big x-factor in this bout is going to be chin and durability though. Both Arlovski and Overeem have been criticized before as having weak chins. Arlovski has 8 of his 11 losses by (T)KO while Overeem has 9 of his 14 losses by (T)KO. Most recently, we saw Arlovski get clipped by a short right hook against Stipe Miocic and then get put away with follow up punches. For Overeem’s last loss we have to travel back to when he got clipped by a straight right against Ben Rothwell. Both men have been susceptible to getting clipped, and not being durable enough to withstand the subsequent follow up attacks.
Comparing Skillsets and Style
When analyzing skill sets and arsenals, I find that Overeem has the much broader box of tricks. His prestigious kickboxing experience and creative mindset has given him a wide variety of attacks at his disposal. However, this has often led to periods of inactivity where Overeem spends more time looking for the right shot to throw rather than actually throwing it. When he finds the answer though – the results are devastating.
He has fundamental striking down, but it’s his kicking attacks that really separate him from Arlovski. The round kick to the body and legs have been utilized effectively by Overeem as well as the step-in and flying knee. Additionally, we have seen Overeem throw oblique kicks to the thigh which is a Jackson-Wink special. Overeem is a very calculated demolisher who is offensively one of the most sound fighters in the sport. His athleticism and physical strength also aids him when tying up with his opponent as he can throw them into his knee attacks to accentuate the force of the blow; he has won multiple times in K-1 by doing this.
Over the past few years though, Overeem has had to shift his approach and fine-tune it based on his ever increasing fragility. Previously in his career, Overeem has been able to rely on his significant size and strength to dictate fights via pressure, and the ever looming intimidation of his knockout power. A few knockout losses later (and the implementation of USADA law) and now we have a much more refined Alistair Overeem who relies on intelligence and tactics. This has shown ever-so-slightly by Overeem’s increased amount of wrestling that he has been showcasing. Against Stefan Struve, Overeem didn’t risk getting clipped on the feet and instead opted to tackle Struve down and knockout him out with ground and pound.
Comparitively, Andrei Arlovski is the much more simpified fighter. Overeem very much represents complexity and years and years of fine-tuning him into an intelligent, tactical knockout artist whereas Arlovski is a simplified, effective slugger. Arlovski’s right hand comes out like a piston which is often doubled or tripled up. Smooth punching mechanics allows him to fire off attacks in succession, but you won’t see much variety out of him. Arlovski often tries to time his opponent with lunging attacks, and follows them up with single shots to the head and body. Kicks are all too rare for Arlovski, and so is the grappling game.
Conclusion
All in all, I’m very excited for this fight. If Overeem wins, it’s going to be by using his kicks and deeper arsenal of attacks to complicate the feel of the fight. If Arlovski wins, it’ll be his speedy right hand that catches Overeem being a bit too lackadaisical with his defense. Because they are both so experienced and have had many knockout losses, expect Overeem and Arlovski is give each other a lot of respect. This may result in periods of inactivity, but just know that a single connected shot could mean the end of the fight.
My tentative pick is Alistair Overeem. Knowing that they are familiar with each other, I think Overeem’s savviness and creativity will allow him to bring some looks and weapons that Arlovski has not experienced yet. Meanwhile, Arlovski appears to be down-sizing his arsenal faster than ever, and I see him being a bit too predictable for such a veteran of the game like Overeem.
Who do you think will win between Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski?
