Breeders’ Cup Juveniles will need to grow grow up quickly if they went to shine. The Juvenile is on November 5 at Santa Anita and not only is there contention from around the country to scrutinize, the race is always difficult to handicap.
One of the main reasons is that since these runners are so young, they are maturing and developing almost hourly and the learning curve is constantly moving.
Over the years, this race has been won in a variety of ways. In 2014 Texas Red took advantage of a hotly-contested pace and came from dead last in the field of 11. The son of Afleet Alex, who won two-thirds of the Triple Crown, made a meteor move to go from eleventh to first in one call and just kept on going. He paid 14-1.
Last year at Keeneland fans disrespected the unbeaten four for four record of Nyquist and those naysayers were extremely disappointed. The $400,000 purchase by Uncle Mo showed a new wrinkle in the Breeders’ Cup Juveniles scene when he settled off the pace after being bumped. The youngster was cleverly ridden by Mario Gutierrez, made the lead at the top of the lane, and held it together to win at a fat $11.40.
This year, the puzzles are clearly obvious. To be frank, none of the youngsters aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have run very fast. For most of the contenders, the best Beyer Speed Figures they have mustered leave a bit to be desired. The numbers range from a 78 posted by the Chad Brown trainee Favorable Outcome to the 93 figure earned by Gormley in his last race.
I know some keen observers of the sport out West and some were very impressed by Gormley from the get go. The runner was dismissed on the tote board in his debut but won going away by over four lengths. He proved it was not a fluke when he got away with an uncontested lead in the Grade 1 FrontRunner. One of the things to note is that the runners in the company line in the FrontRunner were both clear of their nearest rivals, sometimes a sign of a potent race.
Gormley is trained by John Shirreffs, who knows what to do with a good horse. He trained the great champ Zenyatta, who won 19 of her 20 starts and lost a heartbreaker in her final appearance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Gormley is out of a stakes winner and he has a shot to run all day long as if you delve into his pedigree the Meadowlands Endurance Stakes winners appears.
Klimt was the beaten favorite in the FrontRunner. He was coming off a career best Beyer winning the Del Mar Futurity and that may have taken the edge off. He will be looking to rebound if he wants to join the other Breeders’ Cup Juveniles as heroes.
Eastern fans seeking Breeders’ Cup Juveniles to bet on will have several rooting interests. Not This Time seems to be peaking at the right time. He was troubled in his debut, freaked by ten lengths to graduate and then took the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs despite a troubled start. The future is so bright for this runner he may have to wear shades. Not This Time’s sibling Liam’s Map was a multiple Grade 1 winner, took the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and earned over $1.3 million.
Classic Empire has several things in his corner. He has won three of his four starts and the loss was excused as the rider fell off. Trainer Mark Casse, who won 2 Breeders’ Cup races last year, added blinkers last time for the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. They worked to perfection as the $475,000 purchase tracked the early speed and was inching away from his rivals late. Classic Empire’s sire is Pioneerof the Nile, the same sire that is responsible for Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.
The one/two finishers in the Champagne stakes must also be given strong consideration. Practical Joke was slow to start in that Champagne but timed his punch line perfectly to beat Syndergaard by a nose.
Theory will be coming into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile unbeaten in two starts. He came off an eleven-week layoff to win the Grade 3 Futurity at Belmont last time at six furlongs and he galloped out strongly. Both of his wins have been in sprints but stamina should be there. His sire Gemologist won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial routing.
As the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile approaches, try to pay attention at how the runner take to the Santa Anita surface. And lean toward analyzing keen speed the day of the race.
