The Atlanta Hawks and the Brooklyn Nets will meet again, after changing towns, in a home-and-home series that features some of the worst teams in the East, and in the NBA. The Hawks took one in Brooklyn, but it doesn’t mean much as neither side is overly consistent. This could be a completely different game.
Nets at Hawks
Spread: Atlanta -2 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over/under 217.5 points (-110)
Disorganized Nets fall at home to the Hawks
You know that it’s not your night when you finally get within three points and play 24 seconds of great defense, only to see an off-balanced prayer of an opposing player drop in your basket. This describes a Hawks’ Bellineli’s three from the first half of a Nets 102-114 home loss but is also a microcosm of the game.
The Nets rarely did something good, and even when they did, it wouldn’t help them. Except for Carroll, no one played with much effort and purpose, Dinwiddie had more bad decisions in this game than in previous three combined, the bench was out of whack and the coaching was poor. Brooklyn has actually shot well from deep, hitting 10 of their first 20 attempts, and finishing with 17 treys. They couldn’t hit closer shots, as they couldn’t get anything easy or close. Even with Hollis-Jefferson returning from an injury, Atkinson decided to roll with Booker in the starting lineup, and it did no favors to either man. Booker finished scoreless, missing all five attempts, and had just one rebound. His area of play was occupied by Carroll, and he didn’t feel comfortable as the main pick and roll man. Dinwiddie was the high point man with 15 points and had also 9 rebounds, but was often late to make a pass and sometimes forced the issue. The bench was terrible out there, despite the scoresheet only partially dissatisfactory. Lost assignments, confused play, taking turns. It was a poor night, and 19 turnovers and a L best represent it. The Nets are giving up 114 points at home on average, so they know they have to score to give themselves a chance – they were just 41.5 percent for the game, 17-of-40 on twos and 17-of-42 on threes.
Aside, Russell and Lin, the Nets have no injured players. You may expect RHJ back with the starters, and it would really help to have him there. After playing in Atlanta, the Nets will host the next two games in Mexico City, as a part of NBA International, so their mind might already be in preparations for this week-long trip.
Place: Philips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Date/Time: Monday, December 4th, 2017. 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSSE-A, YES
The Hawks use effort to help thin front line
Playing without starting center Dedmon, and top reserve big Collins, who is also their best rebounders, the Hawks used the team approach to clean up the glass. This helped them win, but also control the score through entire second half of Saturday’s early game.
Truth to be told, the game was filled with bad basketball plays, and the biggest difference was that the Hawks had significantly fewer of those. They kept the action simple and usually knew whom to guard. On offense, most of their plays ended with a player taking a shot in his comfort zone – whether it was Schroder playing one-on-one, Babbitt spotting up to launch threes or Prince working in transition. The Hawks hit 47.5 percent of their field goal attempts and made up for quite a few misses with 13 offensive rebounds (8 by Ilyasova!), most of which led to second-chance points. Their bench came in ready to play. It wasn’t always pretty to watch, but the effort was their, and Atlanta looked as a team trying to work out a coach’s game plan. Schroder used his speed to create 24 shots for himself and it led to team-high 24 points. He also did good care of the ball (helps when you’re not passing much), and the Hawks only had 10 giveaways for the day. Defensively, they were content to keep the ball in front of them and contest shots, and it worked. Brooklyn only had 28 points in the paint and the three-ball alone couldn’t save them. The Hawks did a solid job of hitting their three-point attempts, mostly due to 4-of-6 from Luke Babbitt. They were a bit frustrated by officiating but picked terrible times to pick up technicals (three total).
The Hawks will be without Dedmon, Muscala, and Collins for an extended period, so this look they gave us is what we can expect from them going forward. Dedmon suffered a left tibia stress reaction and is expected to miss three-to-six weeks, Muscala has a bad ankle sprain that will require few weeks of rest and Collins suffered a shoulder injury and will be out for until Christmas. After playing Brooklyn twice, the Hawks have the Magic next – also twice.
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks Game Trends & Prediction
The loss snapped a streak of seven ATS wins in a row – the Nets have mastered covering with the aid of spread points, but this time they were set to be a favorite. They are still 14-8 against the spread but had more success on the road (8-4), as well as against the other conference (9-4). The total stayed below the line for the third time in four games as the Nets have been suffering from bad shooting percentages and slower pace. In neither of the game, they managed to hit 110 points, their usual average.
Atlanta is in a good stretch, covering three times in the last four games. This improved their ATS record to a bearable 10-11-1. Tight away under is a continuation of a season long trend – the Hawks played much more over games in Philips Arena. Overall, they are 12-9 against the total points lines, and 8-2 in front of their own fans (the few that actually show up).
Admi-Rank: The Nets have been on a rise until the last game, but a lot of things went wrong in that one and can’t simply be ignored. The Hawks do get some percentage points for the effort, but in truth, neither of these teams is any good. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t profit on their play.
While it’s fair to say that the Hawks looked better and that they controlled the score, you should take this with a grain of salt. If not for a few Brooklyn unforced errors and some timely made shots, it would have been close. The Hawks may win again, but don’t expect them to dominate – they are known for letdowns, poor shot selection and less than impressive defense. The Nets can and will play better.
The books understand this very well and are only giving them two extra points. They are fading them due to away success, but also for the weird reason of expecting the market to go after the first game’s loser. While this method is claimed to have been justified in numbers, I still don’t buy it – there’s no common reasoning behind why a split should be more realistic than to better win it twice. I’m going with Atlanta -3.5 here and will have a home wager on this spread, but I also wanted to clear this. I’m after another total in this game, as those things can be seen the best by the most recent game. The total line has been set to 217.5, just a tad over the last game’s. The books expect the punters to go after the plus side, but haven’t faded it enough. The Nets won’t shoot as poorly as they did in the last game, and their usual adjustment to a bad game is to push the pace. Also, I expect Booker to be removed from the starting lineup, and this will create more ball and body movement. Go after the plus points here.
My Pick: Atlanta -2 (-110)
Total: Over 217.5 points (-110)
