The Dallas Mavericks (7-9) challenge the Brooklyn Nets (8-10) at the American Airlines Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 21, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 216.5 points with Dallas set as a 7-point favorite.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Nets come in on a high note after easily covering the 4-point spread against the Miami Heat in their last outing, 104-92. The total points for the game (196) were well under the O/U total of 221.5. The Nets made 20 of their 26 free throws (76.9 percent) and held the Heat to an effective field goal percentage of 0.395 (below their season average of 0.509). Brooklyn received a boost from D’Angelo Russell, who led the team in scoring with 20 points on 9-for-22 shooting.
The last time the Mavericks played, they lost to the Memphis Grizzlies, 98-88. They failed to cover as 3-point underdogs. The total points for the game (186) finished under the O/U total of 199. Memphis’ 0.544 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.398. The Grizzlies’ mark was above their season average of 0.513, while the Mavericks’ was below their season average of 0.536. With 17 points and 20 rebounds, DeAndre Jordan had a solid game for Dallas.
After the Nets won both meetings against the Mavericks last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, Brooklyn won 114-106. Brooklyn’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Dallas. The Nets had a rate of 0.167, while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.130.
Brooklyn heads into the contest with records of 8-10 straight up (SU) and 8-9 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nets’ 17 games that accepted bets, eight have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Dallas owns records of 7-9 SU and 10-6 ATS. Vegas is highly precise when predicting totals of Mavericks games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie have played well over the last five games for Brooklyn. Russell has averaged 20 points,6.4 assists,1.8 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Dinwiddie has recorded 16 points,5.8 assists,1.2 steals a game during that span.
The physical Dallas offense could be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this matchup. The Mavericks currently rank seventh in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.220, while Brooklyn ranks 29th in FTA rate allowed (0.234).
Brooklyn Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Brooklyn is 6-4 ATS with 6 unders, 3 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 6-2 ATS at home with 4 overs and 4 unders.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Brooklyn is 4-0 and Dallas is 3-1.
When reaching the century mark, the Nets are 8-9 and the Mavericks are 7-8.
Brooklyn ranks third in steals allowed per game (6.7) while Dallas ranks 28th (9.5).
The Mavericks rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while the Nets rank 26th (16.4).
Brooklyn ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.6) while Dallas ranks 21st (24.3).
The Mavericks rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.8) while the Nets rank 22nd (46.6).
Dallas ranks 12th in fast break points per game (14.6) while Brooklyn ranks last (8.7).
The Mavericks rank 13 in points off turnovers per game (17.375) while the Nets rank 27 (15.222222222222221).
Brooklyn ranks 1 in three pointers allowed per game (25.055555555555557) while Dallas ranks 10 (29.8125).
The Mavericks rank 4 in points allowed in the paint per game (43) while the Nets rank 11 (47.44444444444444).
Dallas ranks 20 in blocks per game (4.9375) while Brooklyn ranks 25 (4.333333333333333).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.0, up from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (3.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 93.8 points per game (14.8 below their season average).
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