The Miami Heat (41-35) will try to continue their eight-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Brooklyn Nets (24-51) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on YES Network at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 31, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 211.5 points with Miami set as a 7.5-point favorite.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Nets’ last game, they topped the Orlando Magic, 111-104. The Nets made 19 of their 22 free throws (86.4 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 25.0 (above their season average of 21.7). D’Angelo Russell had a good outing for Brooklyn, contributing 16 points, 12 assists and five rebounds.
The Heat defeated the Chicago Bulls in their last game, 103-92. Miami’s 0.494 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Chicago, who had a rate of 0.400. The Heat’s mark was below their season average of 0.523, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 0.497. Josh Richardson was the game’s high scorer with 22 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami should have a significant advantage. The Heat defense ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while the Brooklyn offense is ranked 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.511). It will also be a matchup of contrasting styles as the up-tempo Nets rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Heat rank 24th.
Brooklyn has a solid record against the spread (42-32-1), despite being 24-51 straight up (SU). Games including the Nets have a slight tendency to finish under the projected point total (53.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 41-35 SU and 39-33-4 ATS. Heat games also have finished under the projected point total 51.3 percent of the time.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has averaged 17.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 steals over the last five games for Brooklyn.
The Nets have won two out of three against the Heat this season, including a 101-95 victory the last time these teams met. Brooklyn covered as a 3-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 196 points, which was 11.5 points below the projected point total of 207.5 points. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Brooklyn’s largest advantages. They made 26 trips to the line, while Miami went 25 times. DeMarre Carroll scored a game-high 26 points.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat ATS Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Brooklyn is 25-13 ATS with 19 overs and 19 unders.
Miami is 16-19-2 ATS at home with 19 unders, 16 overs and 2 pushes.
Miami is 25-6 when they allow below 100 points, while Brooklyn is 12-1.
The Heat are 29-17 when they reach 100 points, while the Nets are 20-35.
Miami averages 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Brooklyn ranks 29th in blocks allowed per game (5.5).
The Heat rank 11th in second chance points allowed per game (11.8) while the Nets rank 28th (13.6).
Miami ranks 13th in rebounds allowed per game (42.8) while Brooklyn ranks last (46.5).
The Heat rank 19th in steals per game (7.6) while the Nets rank last (6.1).
Miami ranks 19th in points off turnovers per game (16.2) while Brooklyn ranks 29th (14.2).
The Nets rank 18th in fast break points per game (10.6) while the Heat rank 28th (8.9).
Brooklyn ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (35.0) while Miami ranks ninth (30.8).
The Heat rank 14th in points in the paint per game (44.2) while the Nets rank 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (46.7).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Brooklyn ranks seventh (21.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Brooklyn is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push over their last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.4, down from 4.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.2 points per game (1.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 97.4 points per game (5.2 below their season average).
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