The Milwaukee Bucks (42-36) challenge the Brooklyn Nets (25-53) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 5, 2018, and will air on YES Network.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 220.5 points with Milwaukee set as an 8.5-point favorite.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
The last time the Nets played, they were blown out by the Philadelphia 76ers, 121-95. Philadelphia out-rebounded Brooklyn. The 76ers had eight offensive rebounds and 56 total rebounds, while the Nets had three and 36, respectively. Spencer Dinwiddie was Brooklyn’s high scorer with 16 points on 4-for-11 shooting.
The Bucks defeated the Boston Celtics in their last outing, 106-102. The Bucks had a solid effective field goal percentage of 0.576 (above their season average of 0.533), while the Celtics had a turnover percentage of 15.7 (above their season average of 12.3). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s high scorer with 29 points on 11-for-22 shooting.
The aggressive Milwaukee offense could be living from the free throw line in this contest. The Bucks rank fifth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.222, while Brooklyn ranks 21st in FTA rate allowed (0.202). This contest should be a showdown of conflicting styles. The up-and-down Nets rank fifth in possessions per game, while the more methodical Bucks rank 25th.
Although Brooklyn has difficulty winning games straight up (25-53 SU), they have a respectable 43-34-1 record against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Nets games, with 42 unders compared to 36 overs.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 42-36 SU and 33-40-5 ATS. Bucks games tend to go over the O/U total (55.1 percent).
Eric Bledsoe has averaged 25.4 points, 5.8 assists and 2.2 steals over the last five games for Milwaukee.
The Bucks have emerged victorious in both games against the Nets this year, including a 15-point victory in their last matchup. Milwaukee covered as a 4.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 203 points, which was just 4 points below the projected point total of 207 points. The Bucks made 17 of their 21 free throws (81.0 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (35.9 vs. 21.6). John Henson put up a double-double in the victory with 19 points and 18 rebounds.
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Brooklyn is 26-14 ATS on the road with 20 overs and 20 unders.
At home, Milwaukee is 12-24-3 ATS with 21 overs, 17 unders and 1 push.
Milwaukee is 16-5 when they allow below 100 points, while Brooklyn is 12-1.
When reaching the century mark, the Nets are 21-35 and the Bucks are 36-19.
Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Brooklyn ranks 28th (14.1).
The Bucks rank third in steals per game (8.8) while the Nets rank 27th (6.2).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Brooklyn ranks 29th (5.6).
The Nets rank second in three pointers attempted per game (35.2) while the Bucks rank 25th (24.7).
Brooklyn ranks seventh in rebounds per game (44.6) while Milwaukee ranks 29th (39.5).
The Bucks average 47.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Nets rank 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.2).
Brooklyn ranks 15th in second chance points per game (12.6) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (10.5).
The Bucks rank third in fast break points allowed per game (9.8) while the Nets rank 13th (11.4).
Brooklyn ranks 12th in assists per game (23.3) while Milwaukee ranks 16th in assists allowed per game (23.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Brooklyn is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Milwaukee is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.4, up from 4.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (7.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (6.1 above their season average).
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