The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in control of their playoff destiny. They might need to win out in order to keep it that way. The Buccaneers are holding on to the final NFC Wild Card spot following last week’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys as they own the tiebreaker with the Green Bay Packers with both teams at 8-6 heading in to this weekend based on the best win percentage in common games. Ultimately it will come down to division play for Tampa Bay as they close out the regular season with back-to-back games against NFC South opponents beginning on the road against the New Orleans Saints this Saturday afternoon.
Moneyline: Saints -170
Handicap/Spread Odds: Saints -3
Total O/U: 52.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/11/16 | NO 11 – TB 16 | TB -2 | U 52 |
| 12/13/15 | NO 24 – TB 17 | NO 6 | U 52 |
| 09/20/15 | TB 26 – NO 19 | TB 9.5 | U 47 |
| 12/28/14 | NO 23 – TB 20 | TB 6 | U 47 |
| 10/05/14 | TB 31 – NO 37 x | TB 11 | O 47.5 |
On The Buccaneers Side of the Ball (8-6 Record, 9-5 ATS)
The Buccaneers strung together five straight wins before finally having their win streak snapped in Dallas last week but they have a lot of positives to take in to their final game of the season. Jameis Winston had a rough outing against the Cowboys but he has been excellent overall this season with 3,611 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. Meanwhile, there is no doubt that the Buccaneers can get more out of Doug Martin, who has struggled in each of the past couple of weeks. Winston and Martin were both just average in Tampa Bay’s 16-11 win over New Orleans a couple of weeks ago but the Buccaneers defense absolutely shut down Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack while Roberto Aguayo made three field goals in the win. Tampa Bay held Brees without a touchdown in that game and will need a similar defensive effort this week with its playoff hopes on the line.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | @DAL | L 20-26 | W 7 | U 47.5 |
| 12/11/16 | NO | W 16-11 | W -2 | U 52 |
| 12/04/16 | @SD | W 28-21 | W 3.5 | P 49 |
| 11/27/16 | SEA | W 14-5 | W 5 | U 46 |
| 11/20/16 | @KC | W 19-17 | W 7 | U 45 |
On The Saints Side of the Ball (6-8 Record, 9-5 ATS)
The Saints finally got their offense going in last week’s 48-41 win over the Arizona Cardinals as Drew Brees threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns. New Orleans needs to solve the Tampa Bay defense early and figure out a way to keep them on their heels with a good balance between the run and the pass. Mark Ingram rushed f or 78 yards against Arizona so perhaps that balance will be the key to success on Sunday. New Orleans has averaged 29.0 points per game and lead the league in total yards with an average of 423.3 per game this season. The Saints might not be playoff bound but they will definitely relish the role of spoiler in their home finale.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/18/16 | @ARI | W 48-41 | W 3 | O 48.5 |
| 12/11/16 | @TB | L 11-16 | L 2 | U 52 |
| 12/04/16 | DET | L 13-28 | L -6.5 | U 53 |
| 11/27/16 | LA | W 49-21 | W -8 | O 45 |
| 11/17/16 | @CAR | L 20-23 | W 3.5 | U 52.5 |
Quick Analysis
The Buccaneers have exceeded expectations all season in terms of beating the sportsbooks as they are 9-5 against the spread. Tampa Bay is also 5-0 ATS in its last five road games overall and they are fighting for their playoff lives this weekend. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ATS in its last five home games against the Buccaneers so it will be interesting to see if they can play spoiler on Saturday.
Prediction
The fact that the Saints are actually the betting favorites is testament to their overall success at home over the years but that may not be relevant any more. They are just 3-4 in the Superdome this season and have lost two of their last three there. Beyond that, there are question marks as to whether this is the end of the Sean Payton era in New Orleans. Considering they’ve lost four of their last six overall, they look like a team that’s coming apart at the seams a little bit. As for Tampa Bay, their season is on the line here. They beat New Orleans just a couple of weeks ago and fought valiantly against the Dallas Cowboys last week. They have the better defense in this spot and the team with more momentum. Take them plus the points.
Pick: Buccaneers +3
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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