The Buffalo Bills (5-5) head to Arrowhead Stadium to square off with the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) this week. The game will air Sunday, Nov 29 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
In last week’s game, Kansas City dominated the Chargers 33-3. Spencer Ware had a huge game running the ball in the victory, rushing 11 times for 96 yards and two TDs. Buffalo is hoping for a different outcome after losing to the Patriots 20-13. LeSean McCoy had a great game for the Bills, putting up 123 total yards and a score. He had 82 yards on the ground and 41 yards receiving. Chris Hogan chipped in with 95 yards on six catches.
The Bills are a four-point underdog against the Chiefs and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is currently not available.
Sitting at 5-5 for both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS), the Chiefs will look to improve heading into Week 12. In their five most recent matchups, the Chiefs went 4-1 for both SU and ATS. A focal point of Kansas City’s offense at home is the run game, which ranks first in the league with 151.2 rushing yards per home game. Turning to the Chiefs defense, there are several areas to keep an eye on. The Bills probably won’t throw the ball often in Kansas City. They are one of the least-effective passing teams in the NFL, averaging 202.8 passing yards per game. The Bills will need to stop Kansas City’s defense from getting to their quarterback in order to be successful in this game. The Chiefs rank fifth in sacks with 3.2 per home game. In the second quarter, Kansas City offense is stout, putting up a league-leading 11.8 points during home games. On average, the Bills are given 9.5 flags each game, one of the worst rates in the league. Similar errors could benefit the Chiefs in this week’s game.
Shifting to the opposition, the Bills head into Week 12 with records of 5-4-1 ATS and 5-5 SU. Over their last five games, the Bills have a SU record of 2-3 and a 2-2-1 record ATS. Buffalo’s game plan focuses on running the football, averaging 29.9 rushing attempts per game. Moving on to the Buffalo defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. The secondary of the Bills will be looking to shut down the weak passing attack of the Chiefs, which ranks 31st in the league with an average of 178.2 passing yards during home games.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC
Notes
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games.
Kansas City is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City’s last 13 games when playing Buffalo.
Kansas City is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City’s last 11 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 4-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Kansas City is 5-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Buffalo is winless (0-4 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Kansas City defense has forced an average of 2.8 turnovers over its last five games. Buffalo is 0-3 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
Kansas City is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its ninth-ranked rushing attack will face the 10th-ranked run defense of Buffalo, while its fourth-ranked rush defense will look to contain the fifth-ranked run game of the Bills.
