The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are ready to collide on the turf at Gillette Stadium. CBS will broadcast the action and this AFC East game is scheduled to get going at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Preview
The Bills head into this Sunday AFC game as a big underdog and they’re currently getting 13 points. The Bills are also receiving +475 moneyline odds while the Patriots are -725. Should one squad can create a bunch of points early it’ll create a worthwhile betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 45 points.
Odds have shifted slightly from when they were originally posted. The line opened at -13 while the game’s O/U was initially set at 45.5.
The Bills are down 3.0 units so far in 2018 and 5-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an Over-Under mark of 6-8. The Patriots have lost 3.0 units this season. The team is 8-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-9.
The Bills are just 5-9 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 9-5 SU overall and 3-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Bills just got a 14-13 win over Detroit in Week 15. The Bills defense allowed the Lions to run for 105 yards on 26 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen completed only 13 passes on 26 attempts for 204 yards and one touchdown. Keith Ford (only 46 yards on 14 rush attempts) and Marcus Murphy (35 yards on 11 carries) led the running attack while Isaiah McKenzie (six receptions, 53 yards) and Robert Foster (four catches, 108 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 15, Pittsburgh got the victory against this New England team by a score of 17-10. Tom Brady completed 25-of-36 passes for 279 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sony Michel (59 yards on 13 rush attempts) mounted the running game while Julian Edelman (seven receptions, 90 yards) and James White (five catches, 25 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Buffalo has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New England has a rush percentage of 43.7 percent. The Bills have produced 125 rush yards per game (including 158 per game versus East opponents) and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Pats are putting up 117 rush yards per game (136 in conference) and have 16 total rushing TDs.
If 2018 results can translate to this game, then it appears the Bills could hold an edge in terms of efficiency in the ground game, as their running backs has generated 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents. The Patriots have registered 4.1 yards per carry and allowed 5.0 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bills offensive scheme has logged 189 yards per contest through the air overall (249 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Pats have recorded 288 pass yards per contest (309.8 against AFC competition) and have 24 total pass TDs.
Buffalo seems to hold the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 105 yards and pass for 201 yards per game. The New England D has allowed 271.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 116.2 yards per game on the ground. The Bills are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.33 to opposing QBs, while the Pats have given up a 6.10 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Allen has amassed 1,427 yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 114-of-217 attempts with six scores through the air and seven interceptions. Allen’s got a 4.32 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.80 over the last two outings.
Tom Brady has completed 311-of-470 passes for 3,621 yards, 21 TDs and nine INTs for New England. His ANY/A sits at 7.22 for the season and 7.94 across his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 16 NFL Betting Odds and Predictions
NFL Prediction: Bills at Patriots
SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Bills, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Buffalo D has 31 sacks on the year while New England has 26.
New England has lost six fumbles in 2018 while the Buffalo offense has let eight get away.
The Bills offense has created seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Patriots have put up eight such plays.
The Buffalo defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New England has given up eight such plays.
The Buffalo offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New England has created eight such runs.
Both teams have allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Bills have given up 51 running plays of 10+ yards while the Patriots have given up 53 such plays.
The O/U for New England’s last match was 55. The under cashed in the team’s 17-10 defeat to Pittsburgh.
In its last three matches, New England is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three contests, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Buffalo’s last game was set at 39.5. The under cashed in the team’s 14-13 victory over Detroit.
Buffalo has rushed for 5.0 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.3 over its last two.
New England has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.5 over its last two.
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