The New England Patriots (9-0) look to extend their unbeaten streak as they meet the Buffalo Bills (5-4). This game will feature the NFL’s top passer, Tom Brady (3,043 yards, 24 TDs). It starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Monday, Nov 23 and can be seen on ESPN.
The Week 2 matchup between the Patriots and the Bills ended in a 40-32 loss for Buffalo. Julian Edelman had a great outing in that game, registering 11 catches for 97 yards and two TDs. Rob Gronkowski had a big day as well, contributing 113 yards and a TD on seven receptions. Tyrod Taylor had a quality performance throwing the ball for Buffalo, completing 23 of 30 passes for 242 yards, three TDs and three interceptions. LeSean McCoy added 89 yards on 15 attempts.
The Patriots are a heavy seven-point favorite and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 49 points.
The Patriots enter the game with records of 9-0 Straight Up (SU) and 5-2-2 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. New England sets the tone offensively with its passing attack, which averages a league-best 325.9 yards per game. The New England run defense has played at a high level the past five games. It has given up 68.2 rush yards per game during that span. A vital part of the game will be if the Bills can protect their quarterback from New England’s vicious defense. It averages the second-most sacks in the league with 3.3 per game. Keep an eye on New England to pick up the pace during the second quarter, when it averages 9.4 points per game. Mistakes and a lack of focus could be factors that benefit the Patriots in this game. The Bills lead the league in penalties with 10 per game.
As for their opponent, the Bills have 5-4 SU and ATS records this season. The Bills went 3-2 for both SU and ATS over the last five games. Buffalo’s running backs and offensive linemen will look to keep its rushing attack rolling. Over the past five games, they’ve managed an impressive 153.6 rushing yards per game. Shifting to the other side of the ball, the Buffalo defense could excel if they take advantage of favorable matchups. Buffalo’s defense ranks in the top half of the league for rushing yards allowed and could have the upper hand this week against the 27th-ranked rushing attack of the Patriots, which averages 92.8 yards on the ground per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Over
Notes
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games at home.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
New England is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games at home.
New England is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 9 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 4-0 SU this season, when leading at the half. New England is 7-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Remarkably, Buffalo is winless (0-4 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, New England is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its second-ranked offensive passing game will face the 18th-ranked pass defense of Buffalo, while its 22nd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 29th-ranked aerial attack of the Bills.
Buffalo has only given up 19.5 points per game on the road, which ranks it seventh in the league. New England, however, has scored 34.4 points per contest at home (ranked first overall).
