Watch out for Geno Smith to air it out in this game as the New York Jets (5-3) face a Buffalo Bills (4-4) team that does much better against the run than the pass. Though New York had their fair share of success this season, the team has struggled lately, losing one of its last three. The game will begin Thursday, Nov 12 at 8:25 p.m. ET and can be seen on NFLN.
This will be the first meeting of the season for the division rivals. The Bills have won three straight against the Jets, dating back to the 2013 season. Darrin Walls led the way for the Jets defense in the last game against the Bills, totaling seven tackles. Jerry Hughes led the way for the Buffalo defense, registering four tackles and two sacks.
The Jets, a three-point favorite, will be looking to defend their home field when Buffalo visits. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 44 points.
The Jets enter the game with records of 5-3 Straight Up (SU) and 4-3-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, New York is 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS. The Jets are known to run the ball. Their 30.1 rushing attempts per game are the fourth-most in the NFL. Transitioning to the New York defense, there are some factors that could impact the outcome. New York’s defense will look to improve its stats against the pass when the Bills come to town. Buffalo’s 208.9 passing yards per game ranks 29th in the NFL. In order to avoid a blowout, the Bills need to watch out for New York’s stingy coverage. The Jets average the most turnovers with three per home game. The Jets should be able to profit from Buffalo’s struggles during the third quarter, when it gives up 7.1 points per game. Buffalo will want to avoid costly mistakes against the Jets. The Bills lead the league in penalties with 10.6 per game.
Moving to the road team, the Bills have a record of 4-4 for both ATS and SU. In the previous five games, Buffalo has a record of 2-3 for both SU and ATS. The Bills tend to keep the ball on the ground when playing away from home. On average, they run 30 times per road game. Switching gears to the Buffalo defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Buffalo’s fourth-ranked road pass defense has given its competition problems. Opponents have only thrown for 214.3 yards per home game against this scary unit. If the Jets aren’t careful throwing the ball against Buffalo’s defense, they might be in some trouble. Its defense has picked off the fourth-most throws on the road this season with 1.7 per game. The Jets defense during the second quarter is one of the league’s worst. They allow 9.4 points per game in the second quarter. Special teams is an area of weakness for the Jets. They give up the most return yards per game in the NFL with 121.1.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYJ, ATS Winner – NYJ, O/U – Over
Notes
NY Jets are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games.
NY Jets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games.
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Buffalo.
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo.
NY Jets are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 3-0 SU this season, when leading at the half. New York is 4-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Buffalo is winless (0-4 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (3-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The New York defense has forced an average of 2.4 turnovers per game this season. Buffalo is 0-3 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
Since the start of last season, Buffalo is 6-3 SU against AFC East opponents, while New York is just 2-6 SU against division foes.
The New York rushing attack is ranked 14th in the league, while the Buffalo run defense is ranked sixth. The Bills’ offensive run game is ranked second, compared to the first-ranked rush defense of the Jets.
