Two teams that like to run the football, Head Coach Lance Leipold and the Buffalo Bulls (-14) are taking on the Bowling Green Falcons at Doyt L. Perry Stadium. This conference matchup kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ESPNU. These teams met last year with the final result being a 38-28 win for Buffalo.
Buffalo Bulls vs. Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview
Bowling Green is entering this MAC matchup as a significant underdog and is currently getting 14 points. The Bulls are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Falcons are +500. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 58. With the Falcons currently getting 14 points, Vegas thinks this has the look of a 22-36 victory for the Bulls. If one team finds paydirt early, it will probably produce a nice betting scenario in-game.
Early action has been leaning in favor of both the Bulls and the over. The opening line was initially set at 13 while the game’s total was originally only 56.
The profitable Bulls have gained 5.0 units so far and are 8-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 8-2. The Falcons have gained 0.4 units this season. The team is 4-7 ATS and has an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Bulls are 9-2 straight up (SU), including 6-1 SU against conference opponents. The Falcons are 3-8 SU overall and 2-5 SU in conference play.
The Bulls will attempt to bounce back after a 52-17 defeat to Ohio last week. The passing attack could’ve been sharper as Tyree Jackson completed only nine-of-21 passes for 116 yards and two interceptions. Kevin Marks (54 rushing yards on nine attempts, one TD) led the ground attack while Anthony Johnson (six receptions, 95 yards) and Charlie Jones (two catches, 16 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Bowling Green Falcons just earned a 21-6 win over Akron. The defense did its part in the victory, keeping the Zips to only 148 passing yards and 79 rushing yards. Van Edwards, Jr. had a good showing in the loss for Akron, accounting for 69 rushing yards on 18 attempts. For Bowling Green, Jarret Doege completed 19-of-27 passes for 178 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Rico Frye (59 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and Andrew Clair (112 yards on 12 carries) spearheaded the running game while Scott Miller (six receptions, 100 yards) and Bryson Denley (three catches, zero yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Buffalo has run the ball on 57.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Bowling Green has a rush percentage of 50.7 percent. The Bulls have rushed for 188 yards per game (including 212 per game against Mid-American opponents) and have 28 scores on the ground this year. The Falcons are totaling 122 rushing yards per game (142 in conference) and have nine total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers so far, it seems like the Bulls may own an advantage when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has produced 4.6 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 4.3 YPC to opponents. The Falcons have ran for 3.4 yards per carry and allowed 5.9 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has averaged 225 yards in the air overall (227 per game against conference opposition) and has 24 passing scores so far. The Falcons have produced 247 pass yards per contest (247.6 in the MAC) and have 27 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Buffalo has allowed 180 rush yards and 177 pass yards per game. The Bowling Green D has allowed 169.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 275.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulls are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.56 to opposing QBs, while the Falcons have allowed a 7.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Jackson is up to 2,343 passing yards this year, and has completed 168-of-301 attempts with 23 passing scores and 10 interceptions. He has a 7.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.24 over the last two outings.
We’re looking for Bulls to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Anthony Johnson (768 yards, eight TDs), Jaret Patterson (599 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and Kevin Marks (633 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have brought significant production to the offensive game scripts for Buffalo.
Jarret Doege has completed 221-of-349 passes for 2,463 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs for Bowling Green. His ANY/A sits at 6.20 for the season and 4.30 over his last two outings.
The Falcons also prefer to keep their RBs involved. Along with Scott Miller (960 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs), Andrew Clair (607 rush yards, four rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Rico Frye (271 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen a lot of action recently.
NCAA Pick: Buffalo Bulls vs. Bowling Green Falcons
SU Winner – Buffalo, ATS Winner – Buffalo, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The O/U for Buffalo’s previous game going into it was 65. The over cashed in the team’s 52-17 defeat to Ohio.
Buffalo has averaged 5.6 yards per rush attempt over its past three contests and 6.5 over its last two.
Bowling Green has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.3 over its last two.
Bowling Green has lost eight fumbles this season while Buffalo has lost four.
Over its last three contests, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Bowling Green’s last game was 48. The under cashed in the 21-6 triumph over Akron.
In its last three matches, Bowling Green is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Bulls offense has registered 13 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Falcons have accounted for 10 such plays.
The Buffalo defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while Bowling Green has given up 10 such plays.
The Buffalo offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Bowling Green has created 14 such runs.
The Bulls defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Falcons have given up 27 such runs.
The Buffalo D has 28 sacks on the year while Bowling Green has just 15.
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