The Big Ten Network will kick-off their college football slate when the Buffalo Bulls travel to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The game is scheduled to start on Thursday, August 31st at 7:00 p.m. EST. Odds makers currently have the Gophers listed as a 26 point home favorite with a total of 52 points. Early money has driven this line in favor of the Bulls, as this line opened at Minnesota -28.
Minnesota will once again debut a new head coach. Former coach Tracy Claeys lasted just one season on the job. Nevertheless, Claeys managed to lead the Golden Gophers to a 9-4 record, including a 17-12 upset of Washington State in their bowl game. Where’s the love?
The new face of the program is none other than PJ Fleck. Many of you college football fanatics probably remember the whole “Row the Boat” mantra from Fleck’s former team Western Michigan. Well, apparently he rowed his boat to Minneapolis in 2017.
P.J.Fleck did a remarkable job in his four years at Western Michigan. Last year, he led the Broncos to a 13-0 record and New Year’s Six Bowl bid. Western Michigan lost to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.
The Golden Gophers have only 12 starters back and have to replace a four-year starter at quarterback. So we’ll see, if his “Row the Boat” theme will work in the BIG-10. Supposedly, the Minnesota players are buying into the theme.
The Bulls haven’t had anything to get excited about since you or I can remember. Buffalo went just 2-10 in 2016, and are now 7-17 in the first two years under head coach Lance Leipold. Good thing he wasn’t coaching the Gophers. Apparently, everybody knew this wasn’t going to be a quick turnaround. The Bulls have had just two winning seasons in the last 18 years.
Buffalo gets 14 of their starters back from last year’s team. Unfortunately, they have to replace their 1,000-yard rusher and their top three wide outs. Even with those players, the Bulls managed to put up only 16.5 points per game.
Still, there is some optimism on that side of the ball. They really like sophomore signal-caller, Tyree Jackson. Jackson has a big arm and can also use his feet to move the ball. Defensively this team has to improve against the run, as they gave up 253 yards per game in 2016.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls ranked last in the MAC Conference in points scored and 10th in points allowed per game. Obviously, there’s plenty of room for improvement on both sides of the ball. Sophomore quarterback Tyree Jackson hopes to do what he can to change that. Last season, the 6’7″, 245-pounder threw for 1,772 yards with nine touchdowns and nine picks. He also ran the ball 99 times for almost 400 yards with five more scores.
Buffalo lost leading running back Jordan Johnson to graduation. Now, the Bulls will try the combination of Johnathan Hawkins, Theo Anderson, and Kamerion Pickett to make up for the lost yardage. Hawkins recorded almost 400 yards and a touchdown last season.
The huge question for the Bulls is at the receiver spot. The leading returnee Kamathi Holsey had only 19 catches. Buffalo tied for eighth in the MAC in pass plays of 20-plus yards last year. Defenses loaded the box and squatted on the run for all of the Bull’s 2016 games.
The good news for the Buffalo defense that is eight starters are back. But the Bulls need several of them to show significant improvement. Last season, the team ranked 10th in the MAC in points allowed and 124th in the nation in run defense.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
P.J. Fleck inherits a strong running back tandem, but his quarterback will be unproven. Also, the stout defense from a year ago returns only four starters. There are eight back on the offensive side of the football, but he’ll need his rookie quarterback to step up to the plate.
At quarterback, Conor Rhoda, and Demry Croft are the two frontrunners to win the job. Both have attempted 17 career passes heading into this year’s campaign. P.J. Fleck and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca have both said that a starter might not be named until mid-August. As of now, I couldn’t find which of these two greenhorns will get the starting nod.
The Golden Gophers are extremely thin at the wide receiver position as well. Rashad Still is the most productive returning receiver, but he had only 18 receptions in 2016. Again, many new faces will need to learn on the fly if Minnesota hopes to compete in the BIG-10 in 2017.
At running back, the Golden Gophers are set. Standouts Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks return to carry the offensive workload. Smith was second in the BIG-10 with 16 rushing touchdowns and ran for almost 1,200 yards. Brooks, who missed a few games last season, recorded 650 more with five trips to the promised land.
Defensively, the Golden Gophers only get four guys back from a unit that ranked 13th in the country against the pass. Unfortunately, most of the experience is in the linebacking corps. Most notably Jonathan Celestin in the middle. He had 80 tackles in 2016. Also, Minnesota is changing to a 3-4 from a 4-3 to cover up the lack of size on their defensive front.
Prediction
The odds makers clearly think that the coaching change and the lack of a starting quarterback won’t affect the Golden Gophers that much. They come into this contest nearly a four touchdown favorite.
They also have the over at 51. That means that a new quarterback, who hasn’t even seen the field in a Division I football game, has to put up 30+ points in his debut for the Gophers to cover. I don’t think so. I realize the Bulls’ defense struggles, but most are back. Also, I think Buffalo’s improving quarterback can find a way to score here and there.
Either way, I suggest taking the Bulls to cover the 26 points against P.J. Fleck and the Minnesota Golden Gophers. I don’t expect too much of an offensive output from Buffalo, but enough to where Minnesota won’t score enough to cover the 26. The Golden Gophers 29-13 over the Bulls.
Trends
Bulls are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.
The Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 road games.
The Under is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games overall.
Golden Gophers are 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Under is 4-1 in Golden Gophers last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 7-3 in Golden Gophers last 10 vs. MAC.
