Amalie Arena is the site for a divisional matchup as the Tampa Bay Lightning take the ice against the visiting Buffalo Sabres. It’s the fourth and last time that the two clubs will go at it in the regular season. The puck drops at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, April 6, and you’ll be able to view it live on Fox Sports Sun.
Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Tampa Bay (+275) is currently the underdog to Tampa Bay (-360), and the oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 6 goals (-120 to bet the under, +100 for the over).
Earning moneyline bettors 8.4 units, Tampa Bay is 53-27 straight up (SU) overall this year. That winning percentage, ranked first in the league so far this season, is a solid improvement compared to how the team performed during last year’s regular season (42-40). Through 80 regular season matches, 48 of the team’s games have gone over the total, while 30 have gone under and just two have pushed. The team’s 28-12 SU at home this year.
The Lightning come into the matchup with the third-best power-play unit in the NHL, as they’ve scored on 24.4 percent of their extra-man chances this year. On the other hand, their penalty kill is rated 26th overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 76.2 percent of all penalties.
As a team, the Lightning have been penalized 4.1 times per game overall this season, and 3.4 per game over their last five home outings. The team’s had to defend opposition power plays for just 6.8 minutes per game over their last five home outings.
Averaging 29.4 saves per game with a .921 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (43-21-3) has been the top option in goal for Tampa Bay this year. If Tampa Bay chooses to rest him, however, head coach Jon Cooper could roll with Louis Domingue (7-11-11 record, .892 save percentage, 3.44 goals against average).
The Bolts will continue to look for leadership out of Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. Kucherov (98 points) is up to 38 goals and 60 assists and has recorded two or more points 30 times this year. Stamkos has 27 goals and 59 assists to his name and has notched a point in 52 games.
On the other bench, Buffalo is 25-55 straight up (SU) and has lost 17.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year. A total of 38 of its contests have gone under the total, while 37 have gone over and just five have pushed. The Sabres are 14-25 SU as an away team this season.
The Sabres have converted on just 18.5 percent of their power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s ranked 23rd in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 23rd overall and it’s successfully defended 77.7 percent of all penalties.
Buffalo’s players have been penalized 3.5 times per game this season, and 2.6 per game over their past ten games. The team has had to kill penalties just 5.5 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Robin Lehner (26.7 saves per game) has been the primary option in the net for Buffalo. Lehner owns a 14-39-9 record, and has registered a .908 save percentage and 3.01 goals against average this year.
Jack Eichel (25 goals, 37 assists) and Ryan O’Reilly (23 goals, 36 assists) have been standout playmakers for Buffalo and will pace the offensive attack for the visiting Sabres.
Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning Free Picks
Free Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Trends
Nine of Buffalo’s last ten games have been decided by two goals or more. The team is 2-7 in those games.
Power plays and penalty kills may be critical tonight. The Sabres are 9-23 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 21-38 when they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes. The Lightning are 26-15 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 30-17 when they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
Tampa Bay is 6-2 in games decided by a shootout this season while Buffalo is 1-2 in shootouts.
Tampa Bay might have an advantage if it’s a tight one late. The team’s 23-10 in games decided by one goal, while Buffalo is just 11-22 in such games.
The total has gone under in three of Tampa Bay’s last five games.
Tampa Bay has averaged 7.2 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 8.4 giveaways per game (the 9th-fewest in the NHL).
Buffalo is ranked seventh this season with 7.5 giveaways per game. That figure has trended upward recently, as it’s averaged 10.7 giveaways over its last 10 games and 10.0 giveaways over its last five.
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