The BYU Cougars travel to Idaho on Thursday, October 20th to take on the Boise State Broncos on the Smurf turf at Albertsons Stadium. The game is set to go off at 10:15 p.m. ET and will be shown on the ESPN Network. As of now, the Broncos are -7.5 point favorites and the total is 57.5 points.
The Cougar’s Kalani Sitake has been baptized by fire through his first seven games as BYU’s head coach. Fortunately, it looks like the Cougars have survived the heat. After starting 1-3, they have won three straight games. The Cougars have toppled Toledo, on the road against the Spartans and back in Provo versus Mississippi State in double OT.
BYU (4-3):
The game plan for the BYU Cougars has changed a bit as the season has progressed. Less responsibility has been heaped upon their senior quarterback Taysum Hill’s arm and a little more on his feet. For good reason, Hill was not being responsible with the rock and BYU was suffering for it on the scoreboard.
Nevertheless, the new formula is working and Hill’s numbers have settled. So far, Hill has tossed for over 1,400 yards on 136 attempts with nine touchdowns and eight picks. On the ground, Hill has almost 80 carries for well over 300 yards and four touchdowns.
A steady diet of the running game is exactly why the Cougars have got their record back to the positive side. Running back Jamaal Williams has been a work-horse for BYU, moving the ball forward at a consistent rate. Against some decent defenses he has amassed almost 950 yards on 165 carries and has crossed the goal-line 10 times.
Taysum Hill has started to distribute the ball more evenly among BYU’s receiving corps. Five different wide-outs have tallied over 15 catches and all all participating in crucial third down plays. Nick Kurtz leads the way with 28 grabs for just under 300 yards and two scores.
The Cougars defense has fallen off a bit since the beginning of the 2016 season, ranking 67th in the country giving way to 400 total yards a game. That being said, the BYU defense is still a force to reckon with, especially against the run. The Cougars rank 29th in the country, allowing 130 yards a contest.
#14 Boise State (6-0):
The Broncos come into this contest with a 6-0 record and a 3-0 mark in Mountain West games. Last week, Bryan Harsin’s team was back home in Boise to host Colorado State. After reeling off 28 unanswered points, they held off a Colorado State Ram’s comeback and won 28-23.
Quarterback Brett Rypien has been smart with the pig-skin, leading a balanced Broncos attack that racks up over 450 yards a game (34th). Under center, Rypien has completed 112 passes for over 1,600 yards with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
One of the best running backs in the country is quietly racking up some impressive numbers in the Mountain West conference this year. Jeremy McNichols has pulled his weight and then some, totaling 775 yards on 150 carries and 11 trips to pay-dirt. The multi-talented back has also caught 20 passes for another 263 yards and three scores.
Two Boise State receivers are getting the majority of the passes thrown by Matt Rypien. Together, Thomas Sperbeck and Cedric Wilson have reeled in 60 plus catches for over 1,100 yards and 11 scores. Wilson is listed a questionable for Thursday’s contest with a bum ankle.
The Boise State defense has been steady and reliable throughout the 2016 campaign. The Broncos are allowing 19.3 points per game, which ranks them No. 23 in scoring defense. Their 47th ranked run-defense also will be tested when Jamaal Williams takes the field on Thursday night.
Trends and Notes:
The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
The Under is 6-2 in the Cougars last 8 road games.
The Under is 9-1 in the Broncos last 10 home games.
The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against the Broncos.
Game Prediction:
The Cougars and the Broncos have two of the most talented half backs in college football not named Leonard Fournette, or Christian McCaffrey. Boise State will look to use McNichol’s skills in the passing game to off-set the stout run defense the Cougars possess.
As for the Cougars, they will once again rely on their running game that ranks 39th in the country. As a result, they hope to move the chains and keep Boise State’s Matt Rypien and Jeremy McNichols off the grid-iron.
Last week, Jeremy McNichols carried the ball over forty times so don’t expect to see that kind of work-load against the BYU front seven on Thursday. Matt Rypien looked polished against the Rams so a lot of plays will be designed for him to take advantage of the Cougars back end.
Unfortunately for BYU, the Broncos know whats coming and will load-up the box against the Cougars. That means that Taysom Hill will have to make some plays with his arm on the road, which hasn’t been pretty this season.
This contest should remain tight, but Boise State has the better balanced attack and are at home. The Cougars lose this one but the half point is to tempting to walk away from. Get More Sports suggests the Cougars to cover the +7.5.
