The Cal Poly Mustangs will be at Bren Events Center to play the UC Irvine Anteaters in a Big West matchup. Action begins at 11:30 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 3 and can be seen on ES3.
The Anteaters barely escaped UC Davis 62-61 the last time they played. Jaron Martin was the team’s leading scorer with 16 points on 6-for-10 shooting. The Mustangs are coming off a close 78-77 loss against Cal State Fullerton in their last game. Reese Morgan had a game-high 22 points.
Over the last five games, Luke Nelson has really been playing well for the Anteaters. During that stretch, he has averaged 14.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers. On the other side, the Mustangs have been led by Morgan. He has been on fire, averaging 18.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 2.4 steals, and 4.6 three-pointers in the same time frame.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Anteaters winning the first matchup 78-72. Mamadou Ndiaye had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 21 points, four rebounds, one assist, and eight blocks.
The Anteaters are attempting to build on their records of 22-8 Straight Up (SU) and 13-14-1 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 3-7 ATS. Teams routinely struggle to score points against the Anteaters, who allow only 65.7 points per game. The Anteaters have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking ninth in the country with a .389 opponent field-goal percentage. An area where the Anteaters are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.4 blocks per game, 17th in Division I.
Over on the other bench, the Mustangs head into the game with records of 8-16 ATS and 10-17 SU. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Mustangs. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.43.
UC Irvine beat Cal Poly in their most recent meeting this season, bumping its SU record to 6-4 over Cal Poly in their most recent meetings. Additionally, UC Irvine holds the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. UC Irvine had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Cal Poly has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – CalPly, ATS Winner – CalPly
Notes
Cal Poly scores an average of just 73.9 points per game (ranked 130th). UC Irvine ranks 34th in points allowed, giving up 65.7 points per game.
In its last game, Cal Poly lost by a margin of one point. UC Irvine is 4-0 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Cal Poly has a 0-6 record in close games.
With 66.9 possessions and 1.053 points per possession, the UC Irvine Anteaters perform worse on both metrics than the Cal Poly Mustangs. Cal Poly averages 68.7 possessions and 1.076 points per possession.
The UC Irvine Anteaters average an effective field goal percentage of 51.3% this season. The Cal Poly Mustangs have an underachieving record of 2-14 when opponents have an eFG% of 51.3% or greater.
On average, UC Irvine attempts 17.0 three pointers and Cal Poly attempts 22.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the UC Irvine Anteaters have a winning 4-2 record while the Cal Poly Mustangs are even at 10-10.
UC Irvine ranks 71st in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.24, while Cal Poly ranks 33rd with an A/TO of 1.43.
Cal Poly ranks 110th in offensive rebounds, while UC Irvine ranks at 56th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Cal Poly forces a turnover rate of 16.4%. When UC Irvine turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 13-6 record.
