In their final home game of the season, the UC Riverside Highlanders (8-20, 3-11 BigWst) host the Cal Poly Mustangs (9-19, 4-10 BigWst) at Student Recreation Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 1, 2018.
UC Riverside is a 4.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 135 points.
Cal Poly Mustangs at UC Riverside Highlanders ATS Prediction
In the Mustangs’ last game, they beat the CSUN Matadors, 90-86. The Mustangs made 19 of their 24 free throws (79.2 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 (above their season average of 25.5). Cal Poly received a boost from Victor Joseph, who was the game’s high scorer with 36 points on 11-for-17 shooting.
The Highlanders lost a tough one against the UC Davis Aggies in their last game, 64-63. UC Davis’ 0.239 free throw rate was their largest strength over UC Riverside, who had a mark of 0.185. The Aggies’ mark was below their season average of 0.293, while the Highlanders’ was below their season average of 0.232. With 24 points on 7-for-17 shooting, Chance Murray was the top scorer from either team.
UC Riverside could dominate on defense as they clash against one of the NCAA’s worst offenses. The Highlanders rank 47th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.478), while Cal Poly is 318th in effective field goal percentage (0.475).
Cal Poly comes into the game with records of 9-19 straight up (SU) and 7-17-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Mustangs are involved, as 64.0 percent of their games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, UC Riverside is 8-20 SU and 12-11 ATS. Contrary to Cal Poly, games involving the Highlanders have typically gone under the O/U total (69.6 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Joseph scored a game-high 22 points and the Mustangs defeated the Highlanders 71-68 but were unable to cover as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 139 points, which was just 3.5 points above the projected point total of 135.5 points. Cal Poly did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (20-27; 74.1 percent). UC Riverside, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.565 vs. 0.490).
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Riverside Highlanders ATS Pick
Free Basketball Tip: SU Winner – UC Riverside, ATS Winner – UC Riverside, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Cal Poly is 4-9-1 ATS on the road with 7 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
UC Riverside is 5-6 ATS at home with 7 unders and 4 overs.
Cal Poly ranks 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (18.5) while UC Riverside ranks 188th (22.8).
The Highlanders rank 160th in rebounds per game (35.4) while the Mustangs rank 233rd (33.5).
Cal Poly averages 4.0 blocks per game, which ranks 63rd in the nation. UC Riverside ranks 103rd in blocks allowed per game (3.3).
The Highlanders rank 200th in assists per game (12.6) while the Mustangs rank 232nd (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cal Poly is 0-5 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
UC Riverside is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Mustangs’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.2, up from 5.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Highlanders have scored an average of 64.4 points per game (0.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.4 points per game (4.3 below their season average).
