The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (21-8, 10-5 BigWst) and Cal Poly Mustangs (9-20, 4-11 BigWst) close out the regular season when they square off at Thunderdome. The game is scheduled to get underway at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 3, 2018.
UC Santa Barbara is a 14-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 143 points.
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos ATS Prediction
In the Mustangs’ last game, they were beaten by the UC Riverside Highlanders, 72-63. UC Riverside’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Cal Poly. The Highlanders had a rate of 6.3 (better than their season average of 17.7), while the Mustangs posted a mark of 16.9. Donovan Fields played well for Cal Poly, putting up 14 points, five rebounds and five assists.
The Gauchos lost a close one to the Long Beach State 49ers in their last outing, 70-69. Long Beach State’s 34.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over UC Santa Barbara, who had a rate of 29.4. The 49ers’ mark was above their season average of 32.3. UC Santa Barbara’s Gabe Vincent had a solid game, leading both teams in scoring with 28 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
The high-powered offense of UC Santa Barbara (56th in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 112.1) will battle against the porous defense of Cal Poly (292nd in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 109.2). The Gauchos figure to have the edge on that end of the court. Moreover, the Mustangs rank 296th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.202), while the Gauchos rank 54th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.199).
Cal Poly holds records of 9-20 straight up (SU) and 7-18-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Mustangs are involved, as 16 of their 26 games have ended over the total.
Meanwhile, UC Santa Barbara owns records of 21-8 SU and 17-9 ATS. Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Gauchos games, with 14 overs compared to 12 unders.
Vincent has averaged 17.6 points over the last five games for UC Santa Barbara.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Gauchos lost 80-79, unable to cover as 4.5-point favorites. Jalen Canty recorded 21 points, 10 rebounds and six blocks. The game finished with a total of 159 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 144 points. The Mustangs’ 7.4 turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Gauchos, who had a rate of 11.2.
Cal Poly Mustangs at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Betting Pick
College Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – UC Santa Barbara, ATS Winner – Cal Poly, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Cal Poly is 4-10-1 ATS with 7 unders, 6 overs and 2 pushes.
UC Santa Barbara is 5-5 ATS at home with 8 unders and 2 overs.
UC Santa Barbara ranks 84th in assists per game (14.8) while Cal Poly ranks 235th (11.9).
The Gauchos average 36.6 rebounds per game, which ranks 100th in the nation. The Mustangs rank 228th in rebounds allowed per game (37.0).
UC Santa Barbara ranks 33rd in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while Cal Poly ranks 133rd (3.6).
The Gauchos rank first in steals allowed per game (3.6) while the Mustangs rank 98th (6.0).
Cal Poly ranks 22nd in three pointers allowed per game (18.7) while UC Santa Barbara ranks 110th (20.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cal Poly is 0-5 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
UC Santa Barbara is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Mustangs’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.8, up from 6.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Gauchos have scored an average of 66.8 points per game (9.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.6 points per game (0.4 above their season average).
