The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (22-8, 11-5 BigWst) square off against the Cal Poly Mustangs (9-21, 4-12 BigWst) in the Big West Conference Tourney at Honda Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 11:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 142 points with UC Santa Barbara set as an 11.5-point favorite.
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos ATS Prediction
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Gauchos won the most recent matchup 86-61, covering as 12-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 147 points, which was 6 points above the projected point total of 141 points. The Gauchos had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 18.0) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.648 vs. 0.500). King II had a standout performance in the victory, producing 23 points and eight rebounds.
The high-octane offense of UC Santa Barbara (50th in the NCAA with an offensive efficiency of 112.7) will square off against the bottom-tier defense of Cal Poly (300th in the NCAA with a defensive efficiency of 109.9). The Gauchos figure to have the advantage on that end of the court. Additionally, second chance points could be few and far between for the Mustangs. They rank 278th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 25.9 percent, while the Gauchos are 60th-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 74.3 percent).
Cal Poly holds records of 9-21 straight up (SU) and 7-19-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Mustangs are involved, as 17 of their 27 games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, UC Santa Barbara owns records of 22-8 SU and 18-9 ATS. Much like Cal Poly, Gauchos games also have a tendency to go over the total (55.6 percent).
Gabe Vincent has averaged 19.6 points and 1.2 steals over the last five games for UC Santa Barbara.
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – UC Santa Barbara, ATS Winner – UC Santa Barbara, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
UC Santa Barbara ranks 69th in assists per game (15.2) while Cal Poly ranks 233rd (12.0).
The Gauchos rank 98th in rebounds per game (36.5) while the Mustangs rank 232nd in rebounds allowed per game (36.8).
UC Santa Barbara ranks first in steals allowed per game (3.6) while Cal Poly ranks 107th (6.0).
The Gauchos rank 35th in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while the Mustangs rank 136th (3.5).
Cal Poly ranks 31st in three pointers allowed per game (19.1) while UC Santa Barbara ranks 127th (21.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cal Poly is 0-5 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
UC Santa Barbara is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Mustangs’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 11.0, up from 6.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Gauchos have scored an average of 68.0 points per game (8.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 68.8 points per game (1.1 below their season average).
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