The California Golden Bears and the Oregon Ducks both lost this past weekend, but they lost in different ways under different circumstances. Which team is in the more negative and fragile position? That is something which deserves some debate. One thing is clear: This game is a lot more interesting heading into Week 5 than many college football analysts thought at the beginning of the season.
Details
Odds: Ducks -13.5
Date & Time: Saturday, September 30, 10:30 PM ET
Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Reasons To Bet On The California Golden Bears
The Golden Bears deserve a lot more respect than the 13.5-point betting line against them. California played USC tough for nearly three full quarters last weekend. Coach Justin Wilcox has a team with a very strong defense. It never really allowed USC’s offense to take control of the game. USC’s defense created turnovers and enabled the Trojans to pull away in the fourth quarter, but the Cal defense remained solid. This is not last year’s Cal team in which coach Sonny Dykes had no ability to generate improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Cal might give up some points to Oregon, but it won’t get humiliated the way Cal defenses often were in 2016.
The other point to realize is that Oregon is not where it needs to be on defense. The Ducks allowed 37 points last weekend to Arizona State, a team which had been struggling with a coach (Todd Graham) on the hot seat. The Ducks lost to one of the Pac-12’s worst teams, which means the UO defense should not be expected to play at a high level on Saturday. It’s true that Cal’s offense is incomplete and not routinely able to pounce on opportunities, but Oregon’s defense will probably make Cal’s offense look good at several different points in this contest. That will keep the game close at the very least, and maybe give the Golden Bears a chance to win the game outright.
Reasons To Bet On The Oregon Ducks
The Ducks stumbled against Arizona State, but that game was on the road. At home, they have consistently been strong in recent years with the exception of last year’s nightmarish 4-8 campaign. This year, Oregon took a 42-14 halftime lead on Nebraska before holding on to win in the second half. Playing at home, quarterback Justin Herbert should be especially comfortable in leading the offense. He should play well, in which case Cal’s much-improved defense will still have a very hard time containing him. Playing this game at home matters a lot, and what’s also important to realize is that after losing last week, UO head coach Willie Taggart will have his team focused and motivated to not develop a two-game losing streak. That’s a big reason why Oregon could explode in this game, and it’s certainly a reason why the Ducks are favored by almost two touchdowns.
Outlook
When you start looking back at both team’s seasons so far, you can poke a lot of holes in what they’ve accomplished. For example, Cal did look good in a season-opening win at North Carolina but let’s face it: the Tar Heels blew that game. Beyond that, North Carolina hasn’t even looked that good. On top of that, while they fought valiantly at home against USC last week, the reality was that they showed they’re not nearly in the same class by the end of the game.
As for Oregon, they have some impressive wins on the schedule but then they completely flopped as a huge favorite against an Arizona State team that looked lifeless to start the season. And yes, they had a good half against Nebraska but also had a bad half.
The Ducks could win this game big, but everything seen from these two teams through four games suggests that Oregon won’t be consistent enough, while Cal will be relentlessly tough on defense. Oregon should win the game, but Cal should just as definitely keep it relatively close.
Prediction: Golden Bears +13.5
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