The No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys travel south to Ft. Worth, Texas to take on the No. 12 Texas Christian Horned Frogs in a Big 12 matchup of two teams looking to stay in the conference title race this Saturday. Kickoff is set for 4:00pm ET. The Horned Frogs are a 10 point favorite, with the point total set at 62.
Sitting atop conference standings, and riding a five game winning streak, Oklahoma State (5-1, 3-0) might seem like quite a hot team at the moment. But if one looks underneath the surface, there is a shaky foundation revealed.
All three of the Cowboys conference wins have come against teams that each have 2-4 records, and are all still currently winless in the conference. Even worse, OSU has seemed to regress in recent weeks, following up a rather blasé win against Iowa State with an even worse performance against Kansas last week. The Cowboys gave up a 13-point second half lead against the Jayhawks, but were saved by speedy tailback Tyreek Hill’s 99-yard kickoff return touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the 4th quarter. The kick return touchdown was Hill’s second in two weeks.
The Cowboys usually potent offense managed only 275 yards against the Jayhawks, easily their worst performance in recent memory. Oklahoma State knows that their offense will have to perform much better than that if they want to outgun a Horned Frogs team ranked third nationally in points scored, with 45.8 points per game.
Senior offensive lineman Daniel Koenig knows that this begins up front, and that his unit will have to improve on their lackluster performances the last few games.
“Be more consistent, not get beat.” Koenig said. “Basically, you just have to go out and practice (during the week.) Then go out there and try to execute as well as possible.”
With the young and banged up offensive line struggling, the Cowboys have yet to see a tailback go over 100 yards in a game this season, and quarterback Daxx Garman has been under pressure consistently during conference play.
The TCU Horned Frogs (4-1, 1-1) have had a pretty eventful two weeks. After knocking off the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners in a validating 37-33 thriller, the Horned Frogs were instantly regarded as one of the many surprise teams this season, and looked to continue their unexpected run against a fifth-ranked Baylor Bears team in Waco last week.
TCU led the entire game, yet inexplicably squandered a 21-point lead in the final 11 minutes, and lost 61-58 when Baylor kicker Chris Callahan made a 28-yard field goal after a crucial pass interference penalty set the Bears up on the 11-yard line. The Horned Frog defense, which had been allowing an average of 173 yards per game through the air, surrendered a ridiculous 510 yards to Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty, a career high for him. All six of Petty’s touchdown passes came on gains of 25 yards or more. The Bears offense amassed 782 total yards.
Head coach Gary Patterson was short on answers for his team’s defensive performance. “Obviously, I want to play great defense,” said Patterson. “You have to be able to even the playing field, and maybe we have to get used to winning 45-31. Sometimes you get into those ballgames. I don’t know how you prepare for that to happen.”
TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin was effective while avoiding costly mistakes, completing 21 of 47 passes for 287 yards, one touchdown, and zero picks. Although his 45 yards on the ground were good for his second-lowest output this season, Boykin remains the team’s leading rusher, with 305 yards total.
Highlighted Trends
OSU is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games. The Cowboys are 3-3 ATS this season. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games. They have failed to cover in their last two games, with the OVER going 1-1. TCU is 5-0 ATS this season, and 4-0 ATS in their last four home and conference games. They are 6-3 SU in their last 9 home games. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven. TCU averages 45.8 points per game, while OSU allows 24.6 points per game. OSU averages 37.1 points per game, while TCU allows an average of 23.
Game Forecast
Oklahoma State should have a hard time putting up a lot of points against at TCU defense looking to rebound from what some portray as a fluke performance against Baylor. The Cowboys downtrodden offensive line should be challenged all day by a formidable defensive interior led by defensive tackle Chucky Hunter.
Boykin’s much improved play this season should surely produce a better result than last year’s three interception performance against the Cowboys. Tyreek Hill will look to have several big plays yet again, which could include his third return touchdown in as many games. The Cowboys will turn to the running game to speed the clock and keep their defense rested, with mixed results.
Oklahoma State should benefit from the return of starting offensive lineman Zach Crabtree and cornerback Ashton Lampkin from injury. Cowboy coach Mike Gundy stated this week that he would look to be more involved with playcalling for his struggling offense. OSU has performed well against TCU since they joined the Big-12, going 2-0 as conference foes. The Cowboys will not have a repeat performance of last year’s 24-10 win, but given their history against the Horned Frogs, they should be more than up for their first real challenge since the opening week of the season. Both defenses should play well enough to keep the point total on the lower side.
Pick: Oklahoma State (+10) with the UNDER of 62.
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