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Can The Gators Shock The Rebels This Weekend? A Look Inside Florida vs. Ole Miss

Can McElwain guide the Gators to upset the No. 3 Rebels?

The Florida Gators have climbed in to the AP Top 25 with four straight wins to open the season. This was supposed to be a program that was rebuilding but Jim McElwain has them playing with plenty of confidence. One more way and they’ll go from being an upstart just trying to make some noise to an SEC contender.

The Gators certainly have their work cut out for them as a 7.5-point underdog at home to No. 3 Ole Miss but their early success has made this a very intriguing matchup. It won’t be easy but if the Gators follow these steps, they’ll shock the college football world on Saturday:

Grier Needs To Shine

After the Gators comeback win over Tennessee last weekend, McElwain said that his team didn’t deserve the win. While that may very well be true, the reality is that they pulled out the victory to get to 4-0 and now they have a chance to regroup and make sure they bring their very best to the table this week against the Rebels. They gained confidence from the win and now believe they can do one better. Had they lost, they wouldn’t come into this matchup with such high spirits.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier will be in the spotlight once again on offense after he struggled against the Vols, completing just under 55% of his passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. Florida needs Grier to move the football more efficiently while avoiding turnovers that could potentially cost them in what projects to be a very close game. It doesn’t help that Grier is playing behind a very young and inexperienced offensive line that will have to deal with the dominate Ole Miss defensive line, and there is a good chance that Grier will have to deal with plenty of pressure in his face from start to finish.

However, we saw what Grier was capable of with the game on the line. He went 11-for-17 with 141 and two touchdowns on the final two drives. The Gators need him to carry over that performance to this weekend.

Taylor Must Dominate On The Ground

One way to take some of the pressure off of Grier and the offensive line is to run the football effectively. That means Florida will need a big game from Kelvin Taylor. The junior running back struggled to get going in each of the Gators first three games but he ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Tennessee. The Gators need a similar performance from him this week. He’s capable. Remember, this is a back who broke Emmitt Smith’s all-time rushing record in high school in the state of Florida. He has the potential to dominate on the ground with both the speed and elusiveness to shake defenders and get in to open space. If he can get going early on, it will really help Florida’s potential to win this game in several different ways.

The Defense Must Force Mistakes

Ole Miss averaged 64.0 points over the course of its first three games but they struggled against an inspired Vanderbilt defense last week. They were held to just 27 points in part because of two interceptions thrown by quarterback Chad Kelly. And remember that Ole Miss won by just six points over Alabama the week before even though they had a +3 turnover margin.

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Forcing turnovers will be one of the keys to the Gators’ chances this weekend – especially if the Rebels bounce back with a better effort than they showed last week against Vanderbilt. A big part of the equation will be the tandem of star cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and getting fellow starter Jalen Tabor, who is back from a one-game suspension. At the beginning of the season, Hargreaves said he’s the best cornerback in the country. Now is his time to shine in primetime in front of the country on ESPN.

Florida’s defense might not be good enough to completely shut down the Ole Miss attack but if they can win the turnover battle at home, it will go a long way when it comes to helping their chances to win this game.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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