The Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers will collide in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs this year. Game One will be on Wednesday at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
With a slew of wins down the stretch, including three victories over the second-place Ottawa Senators, the Canadiens comfortably slotted in as the top seed in the Atlantic Division. After missing the postseason last year, largely due to Carey Price’s absence for the majority of the season, they will be hungry to make a run with a very beatable Atlantic Bracket field in their way.
The last time the Montreal Canadiens were in the postseason was in 2014-2015. After besting the Senators in six games in round one, their defense was undressed by the young, exciting and potent Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bolts won in six games, and went on to make the Stanley Cup Final.
In 2013-2014, the Habs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Final against none other than the New York Rangers. After a collision in the opening game in which Chris Kreider lost his footing following through on a breakaway chance, Carey Price injured his knee and was lost for the remainder of the series. Despite a tremendous effort from Dustin Tokarski (remember him?), the Canadiens were dispatched in six games, wondering what might have been had their all-world goaltender been healthy.
Since that playoff matchup, the Canadiens have beaten the Rangers in seven of nine regular season games. And Chris Kreider has become a *ahem* “fan favorite” in Montreal.
New York was kept out of the madness at the end of the season, for the most part. The final two weeks of the season were a mere formality, as they clinched a playoff spot in an overtime loss to the San Jose Sharks back on March 28th. With no hope- or desire, for that matter- of capturing the third spot in the Metro Division, and no chance of sliding back into the second Wild Card spot, the Rangers pretty much knew their opponent for weeks.
Their only task in the final two weeks of the season was to rehabilitate Henrik Lundqvist and get him in playoff shape. More on him in a bit.
Montreal is a -125 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at where the advantages lie for each team.
Offense: advantage Rangers.
This comes with a caveat. The Blueshirts finished fourth in the league in goals-for on the season, behind only Washington, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. However, they were a -303 in 5-on-5 shot attempts on the season- good enough for 27th in the league. The only teams worse? Brooklyn, Buffalo and Arizona. Yikes.
However, the Rangers were fourth in 5-on-5 shooting percentages at 8.8%, behind Brooklyn, Washington and Minnesota.
Steve Valiquette had mentioned it at his hockey analytics conference– the Rangers’ offense is predicated on generating high-danger chances. When they do eventually shoot, they score. In essence, they sacrifice quantity for quality.
This strategy will play out fine so long as they dress the right lineup. Pavel Buchnevich deserves to play. His presence on the powerplay is pivotal as a legitimate shooting threat. Even though he can handle big minutes in a top-six role, he has serviceable chemistry with Oscar Lindberg and Jesper Fast on the fourth line that lengthens their lineup. Jimmy Vesey should also be handed a prominent role.
Essentially, don’t fall into the Canadiens’ trap of dressing Steve Ott and Dwight King. It won’t deter Ott or Andrew Shaw or anyone. At the end of the day, it’s about scoring. And in this series in particular, it’s all about speed. Dressing grit or size will do nothing against the Canadiens (UPDATE: Alain Vigneault will be dressing over Tanner Glass over Pavel Buchnevich because “experience”).
That’s because Montreal is a very balanced puck possession team. Their top three lines are very good at generating chances and utilizing their speed. Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov headline the top line for the Habs. Pacioretty netted 35 goals this year and finished with 67 points, leading the team. Radulov finished second in scoring with 54 points. Centering the first line is Phillip Danault, acquired from Chicago for Dale Weise and Thomas Fleischmann. Danault finished sixth on the team in scoring with 40 points.
Though Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher both had down years scoring-wise, they are still highly effective when needed and on a line with the incredibly fast Paul Byron.
Alex Galchenyuk skated with the fourth line at practice, but this could just be a message being sent and not a permanent thing. Putting the third-highest scorer on the team on the fourth line right before the playoffs would be…odd. There are some concerns about his attitude, apparently. He’s put up a fair amount of points down the stretch, but has only two goals since February 28th. One of those was an overtime winner on the last day of the regular season, his fifth such goal of the year.
Montreal’s advantage in possession ends with their fourth line. Though they throw a lot of hits, which is sexy for a fourth line, scoring fourth lines will win the day in the postseason. Look at last year’s Penguins. Look at the Rangers team that beat the Habs just three years ago.
At 5-on-5, expect action to be fast-paced and helter skelter north-south action. The Rangers’ top line of Derek Stepan, Mats Zuccarello and Chris Kreider will be the marquee trio for Montreal to shut down. The second line has rotated so much under Alain Vigneault that it is hard to predict, but lately the Rangers have used Mika Zibanejad at center with J.T. Miller and Rick Nash on the wings.
That leaves Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner and Jimmy Vesey on the third line, which is a sneaky-good line when given offensive zone time. Grabner could very well be an X-factor in this series with his game-changing speed.
Plus, the Rangers are top 5 in high-danger chances for, according to NaturalStatTrick. That counts for something.
Offhand, I give the Habs’ the edge in the top six. If utilized correctly- which I personally doubt, but I digress- I give the Rangers the edge in the bottom six.
Since the playoffs heighten the value of a bottom six, I give the overall offensive edge to New York, though it is very close. Once Tanner Glass re-enters the lineup, and you best believe he will, Montreal gains the speed advantage and furthers their possession advantage.
Defense: advantage Canadiens.
Shea Weber being back at full strength is a major boon for the Canadiens. Jordie Benn is also back from injury. Alexi Emelin will likely miss Game One at least with a lower-body issue.
The fact is that Shea Weber and Andrei Markov are lethal weapons from the blue line at any strength. The Habs have a very smooth-skating defensive core, from the top on down.
Shea Weber and Max Pacioretty get to know each other a little better, for your enjoyment.
WATCH -> https://t.co/zGmass8sda #GoHabsGo https://t.co/V88O77gAK8— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) March 9, 2017
New York’s defensive core had a rough end to the season. Nick Holden and Marc Staal were a bad pairing in the second half, plain and simple. Dan Girardi and Kevin Klein have had to kick off some rust since returning from the injured reserve. Ryan McDonagh looked good in the final game of the regular season after returning from a lower-body injury. Brady Skjei has been solid. Brendan Smith has been fine, nothing special.
There should be worry that the Rangers’ defense will not be able to keep pace with the very quick Canadiens’ forwards.
For good reason.
The Rangers do not do well against fast teams. There is a reason that Montreal was 3-0 against them this year. Montreal is simply better equipped to deal with fast skaters than New York is.
Montreal takes this one in a landslide, mostly because of…
Special teams: advantage Montreal.
In terms of powerplay percentage, these two teams are not far off at all. New York has a 20.2% efficiency rate, tied for 10th best in the league. At 13th is Montreal, with a 19.6% conversion percentage. The Rangers got four more chances and two more goals. It’s pretty much a dead heat in terms of totals.
In terms of individual weapons, the Canadiens have one of the best in the NHL. Shea Weber has 12 powerplay goals, as many as Rick Nash and Chris Kreider, the Rangers’ top two powerplay men, combined. That marker puts him in the top 10 in the league. Weber’s 22 points on the man advantage is seventh-best among defensemen in the NHL.
Andrei Markov and Nathan Beaulieu add 12 more points a piece from the blueline.
Running the point for the Rangers is typically Ryan McDonagh, who has 15 points on the powerplay (one goal). The leader in powerplay goals from the blueline is amazingly Nick Holden, who has three. The only other defenseman to have scored on the man advantage is Adam Clendening, who will never see the light of day in the playoffs.
The Rangers’ powerplay is at its most effective when Derek Stepan is planted in the high slot as the bumper. Patrice Bergeron perfected this position, and T.J. Oshie was quick to master it as well, which is part of why Washington and Boston have two of the top seven powerplays in the league. The personnel changes fairly often, however.
At Valiquette’s hockey conference, panelist Scott Gomez mentioned that having cohesive powerplay units with consistent members together is vital for establishing connections and learning where the weapons are. When there is a high turnover rate in terms of personnel, powerplays tend to convert less. This is where Vigneault’s shortcomings are highlighted. Powerplay members come and go in this system. Adam Clendening, Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Pirri, and even Matt Puempel are all players that have seen powerplay time that will likely not see as much come playoff time.
Against the Canadiens in the regular season these last three years, the Rangers are 4-for-26. Montreal is 2-for-26. Again, fairly even.
The powerplay will not necessarily be the difference maker. No, what breaks the tie in Montreal’s favor is the stability of the penalty kill. Playing a man down has been a headache for the Rangers these last two seasons since losing their premiere PKers in Brian Boyle, Anton Stralman and Carl Hagelin.
New York allowed six powerplay goals in their last 10 games of the season. Montreal allowed two, and is entering the postseason on a streak of eight consecutive games without a powerplay goal allowed.
Once more, not much separates the totals in terms of penalty killing (Montreal holds the advantage 81.1% to 79.8%), but much of penalty killing rests on the ability of the goaltender…
Goaltending: advantage Montreal.
Carey Price is simply helped out by his defense more. He has clear sight of more shots. The Rangers bleed the third-most high-danger chances in the league, and allow the fifth-most high-danger goals. Montreal has allowed the fewest high-danger chance goals in the league.
Carey Price finished strong to cap off what was a remarkable year. He finished with a 37-20-5 record with a 2.23 goals-against average and .923 save percentage.
In the postseason, Price is 23-27-6 in his career with a 2.62/.912 split. I know my friend and colleague EJ Garr looooves to criticize Price for this perceived lack of “clutch,” but I don’t put too much stock into it.
Henrik Lundqvist had a bad year for Henrik Lundqvist. There’s no way around it. He had several dominant performances sprinkled throughout the season and reached some remarkable milestones. But the goals kept coming, even on shots he had clear sight on. He allowed a clear-sight goal once every 29 shots this season, per Steve Valiquette, down from once every 41 shots last season.
Lundqvist finished 31-20-4 with a 2.74/.910 split. In the postseason in his career, he has been dominant, especially in Game 7s. He has picked up his play since returning from injury, which is a positive sign. But will it be enough?
Bold Predictions:
1) Antti Raanta will start a game for the New York Rangers at some point. The Rangers defense will be spun around and the blame will be put on the wrong party, again. Raanta will lose that game.
2) Chris Kreider, Montreal’s favorite player, will be the Rangers’ leading goal scorer.
3) Andrew Shaw will score at least three goals in the series and have at least one more overturned for getting up in Lundqvist’s grill, per his job description.
4) Rick Nash will have played his last game as a Ranger by series’ end.
Prediction: Montreal in 6.
