The President’s Trophy Winners are taking on the young upstarts with a chip on their shoulder. It’s like a Disney sports movie script.
The Washington Capitals cruised to their second consecutive President’s Trophy this season. Barry Trotz has made what was already a great regular season team into a dominant juggernaut.
Toronto is in the midst of a youth revolution. Star rookies like Auston Matthews and William Nylander make up a roster that surprised a lot of people this year. The Maple Leafs are in the postseason for the first time since the lockout-shortened 2013 season.
And that series was…
Well, let’s just say there are some bad memories to wipe clean.
Washington enters this series with the expectation to finally bring home the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. While expectations are low for the Maple Leafs, hopes are high that they can ring in a new era of Toronto hockey.
Washington is a whopping -400 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Capitals.
Washington’s offensive prowess is well documented. How could it not be? Nicklas Backstrom, one of the best playmakers in the National Hockey League, leads the way with 86 points. Alex Ovechkin had his lowest goal total in a full season since 2010-2011, but he still has 33 and 69 points under his belt. He’s just Alex Ovechkin.
T.J. Oshie had a monster year as well, tied with Ovi as the team’s leading goal scorer with 33.
It’s actually pretty crazy to consider that the Washington Capitals, the league’s winningest team, the best home team in the league, the third-highest scoring team, accomplished all that they have accomplished in what could be considered as a down year for Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. That’s crazy.
In three matchups with the Maple Leafs, the Capitals netted 12 goals. Washington won two of the three games.
Don’t sleep on the Leafs, however. There are few options that need to be watched carefully. Toronto had the fifth-best offense in the league, averaging 3.05 goals-for per game. Five Maple Leaf skaters tallied more than 60 points this season.
At the top of that list, with 69 points and 40 goals, is the Arizona wunderkind Auston Matthews. Matthews centers Nylander and Zach Hyman on the Toronto top line. Like Connor McDavid out west, Matthews is going to have a lot of eyes on him to see if his success can be translated to the postseason.
Plus, they have that Auston Matthews rap song to motivate them. It’s not exactly “Do the John Wall” good, but it’s catchy.
With all the young talent on the Leafs’ roster, it’s easy to forget about James van Riemsdyk. JVR quietly had the best year of his career this season, setting a personal best with 62 points this year. After missing most of last season, he played in all 82 games this year and was a big part of the Leafs’ success this season.
Ultimately though, Washington has picked apart Toronto more effectively this season. Much of that is because of…
Defense: advantage Capitals.
It’s simple, really. Washington allowed the fewest goals-per-game in the regular season by a long shot. They only allowed 2.16 per game. Second is Columbus at 2.35.
Way down the list at 22nd in that category is Toronto at 2.85 allowed per game.
For my money, Washington has one of, if not the, greatest collection of defensemen in the NHL. Three defensemen on the Capitals finished with 30 or more points. Kevin Shattenkirk had 14 points in 19 games in D.C.
On the top pairing for Toronto: Morgan Reilly and Matt Hunwick. There’s a pretty steep drop off, at least in terms of star power.
Both teams allow a fair number of high-danger chances. In that category, they are 14th and 15th in the league in high-danger chances allowed, separated by five. But the difference comes in playmaking ability from the blueline and simply getting more saves when it counts.
But more on that in a moment.
Special teams: avantage Capitals.
Unlike the defensive battle, this is more of an even contest. Toronto owns the second most potent powerplay in the league, converting 23.8% of the time. Right behind them at 23.1% are the Capitals.
Washington is seventh in the league with an 83.8% successful penalty kill. Two spots behind them at 82.5% are the Maple Leafs.
It’s a dead heat.
Toronto went 4-for-15 on the man advantage in three games against the Washington Capitals this season. Washington went 2-for-9.
I give the Capitals a slight advantage if only just because of their system. The Caps are a well-oiled machine on the man advantage, utilizing T.J. Oshie as the bumper in the high slot. Nick Backstrom quarterbacks the play from the right wing circle, with options at the blueline, the high slot, behind the net and of course, the Ovechkin circle.
Backstrom had 35 powerplay points this season, which led the league.
The special teams battle could very well be determined by the play of the final line of defense…
Goaltending: advantage Capitals.
Braden Holtby will get another shot at playoff dominance. At this point, the Capitals’ lack of playoff success is the only thing keeping him from getting the widespread recognition he deserves as a top three goaltender in the league.
Holtby is a lock to be a Vezina nominee, alongside Sergei Bobrovsky and Devan Dubnyk. He notched 42 wins, with a league-leading nine shutouts along the way. He finished with a 2.07 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage.
Opposite him will be Frederik Andersen. Andersen went 33-16-14 this season with a 2.67 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage. He did go 9-2-1 down the stretch, but between him and Holtby, there is no comparison.
Bold Predictions:
1) I don’t believe in curses. I don’t believe in “clutchness.” I don’t believe the Washington Capitals are incapable of going all the way. But I do believe that they are vulnerable and they have been taken deep in a series by inferior teams before. This one is going seven.
2) The Capitals are winless in their last seven games on three or more days rest. That changes in Game One.
3) Mike Babcock-Barry Trotz postgame pressers will rival Mike Sullivan-John Tortorella pressers in entertainment value. The two coaches spent a lot of time together during the World Cup of Hockey. This will be a great coaching matchup.
4) Alex Ovechkin will lead the series in powerplay goals.
Prediction: Capitals in 7.
