The regular season wraps up for the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers, who meet at Georgia Dome for an NFC South Week 17 finale. Key players to watch in this game are the NFL’s fourth-leading passer, Matt Ryan (4,434 yards, 28 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Julio Jones (1,535 yards, 6 TDs). This rough season has shown no signs of improvement for Atlanta. In recent weeks, they have lost two of their last three. The game will begin Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.
The Falcons and Panthers last met in Week 11. Carolina lost a close one to Atlanta 19-17. Benjamin had a big performance for Carolina, totaling nine receptions for 109 yards and one TD.
The Falcons, a three-point favorite, will be looking to hold down their home field when Carolina comes to town. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at zero points. The Falcons enter the game with records of 6-9 Straight Up (SU) and 7-8 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In their five most recent matchups, the Falcons went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. They should be excited to have the Panthers and their 30th-ranked scoring defense come into town. Their Swiss cheese defense gives up an average of 30.4 points per away game. Judging from past home games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Atlanta passing game, which currently ranks second in the NFL with 309.6 passing yards per home game. Recently, Atlanta’s run stoppers have wreaked havoc on their opponents. During their last five games, the Falcons gave up 95.6 rushing yards per game. It is critical for the Panthers to prepare for Atlanta’s big-play defense, which ranks fourth in the league with 1.9 turnovers per game. Atlanta usually gets off to a quick start in games, averaging 6.4 points in the first quarter.
On the other side, the Panthers have a record of 7-8 ATS and 6-8-1 SU. Over their last five games, the Panthers have a SU record of 3-2 and a 2-3 record ATS for those betting with them. They come into the game averaging 20.3 points per game, but expect those numbers to rise. The Falcons give up an average of 24 points at home, making them one of the worst defensive teams in the league. If Atlanta’s earlier games are any indication, the Panthers should throw the ball more on offense. The Falcons allow 290.6 passing yards per game, last in the NFL. During their last five games, the Panthers have done a better job of keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. Their average of allowing 24.7 PPG has fallen since they’ve only given up an average of 18 over their last five. The Carolina pass defense has turned the corner during the past five games. During that span, its allowed 175.2 passing yards per game, dropping its season average to 228. The Panthers generally save their best for last, averaging 7.9 points in the fourth quarter. Carolina tends to run a lot of plays during games, averaging 67.4 offensive snaps for fifth-most in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games.
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina.
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina.
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
Carolina is 5-0-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Atlanta is 6-3 SU when leading after three quarters.
Atlanta is winless this season (0-5 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Atlanta passing attack is ranked fifth in the league, while the Carolina pass defense is only ranked ninth. The Panthers’ passing game is ranked 19th, compared to the 32nd-ranked pass defense of the Falcons.
Carolina has allowed 30.4 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 30th in the league. Atlanta has put up 28.6 points per game at home (ranked sixth overall).
