NBA Preview: Cavaliers vs Nuggets.
Cleveland Cavaliers (46-23) at Denver Nuggets (33-37), 9 p.m. EST
Line: Cavs -3. Total 227.
LeBron James gets it.
The “it” is that the NBA season is a process. This process consists of the regular season being a tune-up for the playoffs. James does not care if Cleveland gets the #1 overall seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. He has been to the NBA Finals 7 times, including the last 6 in a row, and has only had the #1 overall seed twice in those 7 years.
James does not even seem to care if the Cavaliers get the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference either. He has mentioned occasionally that he would like to have home-court advantage for the conference playoffs, but it rarely has been a priority. In the 7 seasons James has made the NBA Finals, his teams have only earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference twice.
James is taking more games off for rest during the regular season. After the fallout from last Saturday, where James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love all sat out against the Clippers during a national TV game to rest, James came right out and said, “There is nothing the NBA can do about it.” What he means is that there is nothing the NBA can do to stop players from resting for “health” reasons during a vigorous stretch in the schedule.
My point here is that the Cavaliers will pick and choose when they want to buckle down on defense and shut the opponent down during the regular season. Generally speaking, they tend to do that during some games when an inferior team has a double-digit lead at the half against them. That is when you may see a third quarter when the Cavs outscore their opponent 34-16 to take control of the game back.
Cleveland gives up 106.3 point per game, which is #19 in the league and their defensive rating is #21 in the league. These are defensive numbers you do not often see from elite teams.
For instance, San Antonio is #2 in the league in points allowed per game and are #1 in defensive rating. Golden State is #11 in points allowed per game but #2 in defensive rating. Even the Houston Rockets, who nobody is mistaking for a defensive juggernaut, is #16 in defensive rating, five spots ahead of Cleveland. Houston is giving up 108.6 points per game, which is #24 in the league.
The Cavaliers have gone over 38 out of their 69 games. This is not an overwhelming ratio towards the over, but the Cavs are like chameleons. They will adapt to the pace of their opponent. If their opponent is freewheeling the pace, then Cleveland has no problem playing a wide-open style, too.
The Nuggets are clearly a team that likes to run and gun. Denver is 43-25-2 to the over this season. The Nuggets are 8-5 to the over on the back-end of back-to-back games this season.
These two teams already played an over against each other on February 11 in Cleveland. The Cavaliers won that game 125-109.
Denver allows 111 points per game, which ranks them at #27 in the league and their defensive rating is even worse at #29 in the league. They are ranked #7 in the league in pace, #3 in the league in points per game with 111.3 and #4 in the league in offensive rating.
Cleveland is ranked #4 in the league, just behind Denver, and is ranked #3 in the league in offensive rating, just ahead of Denver.
For the Nuggets, Wes Chandler, 16.1 points per game, is listed as probable for tonight, coming off a groin injury. Darrell Arthur is listed as probable coming back from some knee soreness. Danilo Gallinari is out tonight.
For the Cavaliers, Deron Williams and Tristan Thompson are probable tonight, while Kyle Korver is out.
My record: 3-3, -$74. My pick:
Cleveland / Denver over 227, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
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