NBA Preview: The Celtics look to avenge a home loss to the Bucks eight days ago.
Boston Celtics (2-2) at Milwaukee Bucks (3-1), Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EST
Line: Bucks -4.5. Total: 207.
These teams already played on October 18 in Boston. The Bucks won that game 108-100 thanks in part to a big fourth quarter when they outscored the Celtics 32-20 for the victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 16 of those fourth-quarter points. The Celtics seemed to tire in the fourth quarter as they were on the back-end of a back-to-back after losing a tough game to Cleveland the night before.
Antetokounmpo had a huge game with 37 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals, while Malcolm Brogdon scored 19 points. Khris Middleton and Matthew Dellavedova added 15 points apiece for the Bucks. Also important for Milwaukee were their fourth quarter contributions. Antetokounmpo, Dellavedova and Brogdon combined for 28 of Milwaukee’s 32 fourth-quarter points.
Jaylen Brown scored 18 points, Kyrie Irving added 17 points, while Terry Rozier had 15 points and 7 boards for Boston. Al Horford had 13 points and 6 rebounds and Marcus Smart added 12 points and 7 rebounds.
From a handicapping perspective, this game falls one day outside the “quick revenge” spot trend that I like to play. However, that will not stop me from picking the Celtics here as they are rested and have a two-game winning streak.
Boston is 3-1 ATS (Against the Spread) on the season and 3-1 to the under with totals. The Celtics rank #15 in pace this season and have middle of the road offensive rankings. However, on defense, Boston ranks #6 in points allowed and rank #7 inn defensive rating.
Milwaukee is 2-1-1 ATS 3-1 to the over with totals. The Bucks rank #22 in pace and have middle of the road numbers in every other category.
Injury report
Celtics: Marcus Smart is questionable with sprains to both ankles. Aron Baynes is questionable with a leg injury. Marcus Morris is out until early November with knee soreness. Bucks: Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a left ankle sprain.
NBA Fantasy Information
Players to look at: Marcus Smart (Celtics), SG, $6600. Smart is averaging 34.8 fantasy points per game, hence he has solid value for his price. Obviously you have to make sure he is going to play.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), SF, $12,400. Believe it or not, Antetokounmpo has value with that price. He is scoring 36.8 points, grabbing 10.8 rebounds while dishing out 5.3 assists per game this season.
New Orleans Pelicans (1-3) at Sacramento Kings (1-3), Thursday, 10:30 p.m. EST
Line: Kings -2. Total: 207.
There are two headline stories for game.
1 – The return of DeMarcus Cousins to Sacramento.
2 – What is wrong with Anthony Davis’s left knee?
Starting with the latter, Davis did get an MRI after playing just 5 minutes at Portland on Tuesday. The Pelicans missed Davis due to his injury as they scored just 93 points without him, two points above their season low.
As far Cousins return to Sacramento goes, he said that he just wants to win the game. Cousins does not know what to expect from the fans. There are a lot of people who feel that Cousins is downplaying his return. Cousins had a contentious relationship with the Kings front office while he was there and as a result, a few of his Pelicans’ teammates have stated publicly that they want to help Cousins get a win in this game.
With that said, it would certainly be easier for New Orleans to get a win if they had Anthony Davis in the lineup. I still like New Orleans to win this game with Cousins return to Sacramento.
As far as the total goes, the Kings rank #29 in pace while ranking #27 in points scored. Sacramento has gone under in three of their four games this season. The Pelicans rank #9 in pace while ranking #13 in points scored. I like the game to go under the Vegas total.
Injury report
Pelicans: Anthony Davis is questionable with a left knee injury.
NBA Fantasy Information
Players to look at: Anthony Davis, (Pelicans), PF, $11,500. Marcus Smart (Celtics), SG, $6600. Smart is averaging 34.8 fantasy points per game and therefore has solid value for his price. Obviously you have to make sure he is going to play.
De’Aaron Fox (Kings), PG, $5700. The rookie Fox is averaging 29.5 fantasy points per game this season. Consequently, he also has value at his price for your team.
Edit 6:33 p.m. EST: Remind me never to play 3 favorites again this early in the season.
Record: 4-7 on the season, -$370.
Sides 3-4
Totals 1-1
2H 0-2.
#1 Sides: 3-6
#1 Totals: 7-2
Ignore my second half plays until they get hot. Who knows, maybe they will not get hot this year.
Boston Celtics +4.5, laying $110 to win $100 – Talked about this game already in the preview from last night. Milwaukee just beat the Celtics eight days ago In Boston. So I look for the Celtics to return the favor tonight.
LA Clippers / Portland under 215.5, laying $110 to win $100 – These teams rank #1 and #2, respectively, to lead the league in Defensive Rating. The Clippers lead the league in points allowed and Portland ranks #3 in the same category. Both teams are middle of the pack teams in pace. If this game flies over, then I need to reanalyze these categories that I use for totals with some of my totals picks.
New Orleans Pick, laying $110 to win $100 – Anthony Davis will not play, but Cousins wants to win this game against his former team and his teammates want to help him win this one.
Picks
Sides: (1) Bos, (2) NOP, (3) Mem, (4) Chi, (5) LAC
Totals: (1) LAC un, (2) NO un, (3) Chi un, (4) Mem un, (5) Bos un
Good Luck.
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