NBA Preview: The Wizards attempt to be first home team to win at home while facing elimination this postseason.
#1 Boston Celtics (60-33) at #4 Washington Wizards (55-38), Friday 8 p.m. EST.
Line: Wizards -5. Total 216.
Series: Celtics lead 3-2.
The Wizards need to hold serve one more time at home to get another crack against Boston at TD Garden. However, for that to happen, Washington will have to overcome a strong trend that has developed in the 2017 playoffs. The home team is 0-10 in elimination games this postseason. Golden State and Cleveland combined to deliver 4 of those 10 losses. Oklahoma City was the only team to be eliminated on the road. The Thunder were eliminated by the Rockets at Houston in Game 5 of the first round.
However, that 0-10 trend will be challenged in this series, where the home team has dominated play. The home team has won all nine games these two teams have played against each other this season. In fact, the home team has covered the Vegas spread in all nine games this season.
The Wizards looked unbeatable at the Verizon Center in Games 3 and 4. Washington used a 22-0 run in Game 3 and a 26-0 run in Game 4 to take control and win both of those games easily. Boston used a 16-0 run early in the first quarter to take control of Game 5 and eventually coast to victory after they got the lead over 20 points.
It is coach Scott Brooks turn to make some adjustments for Washington for Game 6. Although Brooks may only need to hire a motivational speaker for Game 6 considering how flat the Wizards came out for Game 5. This may simply be a matter of effort and intensity for the Wizards to win Game 6. Having effort and intensity is something the home team has had in every game of the series.
Avery Bradley scored a career high 25 points in the first half of Game 5 as Boston jumped out to a 16-point lead at the half. Bradley was high scorer for the game with 29 points. Bradley averaged 16 points per game in Games 1 and 2 at Boston and then averaged 6 points per game in Washington.
Al Horford added 19 points. 7 assists and 6 boards in Game 5 for Boston, while Isaiah Thomas had 18 points and 9 assists and Jae Crowder added 18 points and 8 rebounds. John Wall was held to 21 points and 4 assists for the Wizards. Bradley Beal scored 16 points, while Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre added 13 points apiece.
The Celtics are now 22-5 in their last 27 home games. Boston’s margin of victory in their five home wins this season against the Wizards are 8, 9, 10, 12 and 23 points. The Wizards margin of victory over Boston in their four homes games are 15, 19, 25 and 27 points. The Wizards are 30-5 in their last 35 home games overall this season.
Despite all the blowouts in round two of the postseason, I do not expect the Wizards to rout Boston in Game 6. The Atlanta Hawks only lost by four points in their third visit to the Verizon Center, 103-99 in the first round. The Wizards then eliminated the Hawks in Game 6 of that series at Atlanta.
However, I do expect the home team to prevail in Game 6 of this series. So getting over a 5-point Vegas number is reasonable. Wall has never been to the conference finals. He can carry this team on his shoulders if he needs to. If the Wizards can hold serve, I believe they can win Game 7 at Boston.
Wall is averaging 26.4 points, 10.8 assists and 3 rebounds per game in this series. Beal is averaging 19.4 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds per game, while Porter is averaging 15.8 points, 2.2 assists and 8 rebounds per game.
Thomas is averaging 27.2 points, 6.2 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game in this series. Horford is averaging 16.4 points, 5.6 assists and 6.8 rebounds, while Bradley is averaging 14.6 points, 2.4 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game.
My postseason record: 16-5 (+$910).
My pick:
Washington Wizards -5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
If you want to get in on the betting action for the NBA, then click here to go to BetDSI, one of the few A+ Sportsbooks in the world.
