The undefeated (20) Central Florida Knights fight their way into Annapolis to challenge the Navy Midshipmen in an AAC Conference showdown in Maryland. The much-anticipated contest is set to get underway on Saturday, October 21st at 3:30 p.m. EST. The game can be found on the CBS Sports Network for your afternoon entertainment. As of today, the Central Florida Knights are -7.5 point favorites and the total is an elevated 66 points.
The Navy Midshipmen went into their last game against the Memphis Tigers ranked 25th in the nation. After their 27-30 defeat, they fell out of the rankings and are now a 7.5 point underdog at home. My how one week can change everything in the college football world. Now, they face a stiff test with the Central Florida Knights who might be the best team in the conference.
Scott Frost and his Central Florida Knights have taken the AAC-Conference by storm. Not only are they undefeated coming into Annapolis but they have been destroying their opponents with ease. Amazingly, the Knights are ranked first overall in the country, scoring 50 points a contest. What’s scary is, they are only surrendering 16.8. points to whoever and wherever they play. Last weekend was no different as they thrashed East Carolina 63-21.
(20) Central Florida Knights (5-0)
Well, it certainly appears that Scott Frost has got the Knights turned around. He has the defense playing dominant football and his offense is first in Division I ball. Now, the former option quarterback from Nebraska gets to prepare his team for the best option attack in the nation. If things go as planned, the Knights will be 4-0 in the conference and well on their way to a major bowl appearance. The Knights have not been challenged since the season began, winning all five games by an average of 33.8 points per game.
Central Florida is on the right path to reach a New Year’s Day bowl. The Knights have size, speed, a running game with a confident signal-caller. Last week, quarterback McKenzie Milton completed 21 of 27 for 324 yards with two touchdowns. He also recorded another trip to the end zone with his feet. Since taking over the reigns in Week One, Milton has completed 70 percent of his passes for just under 1,500 yards. His decision making has also been stellar, tossing 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions.
The Central Florida rushing game kind of resembles a lot of teams passing attacks. Instead of having the quarterback distribute the ball to plenty of play-makers, they do it right out of the backfield. Five tailbacks have all rushed for over 100 yards on the year. Also, four of them have found their way into the back of the end zone. Plus, Quarterback MacKenzie Milton is second on the team with 198 yards rushing. Adrian Killins Jr. leads the group with 291 yards and an 8.6 yard per rush average. Taj McGowen is tops with six touchdowns.
Like the running backs, the Knight’s wide receivers all get a chance to help move the chains when Central Florida goes to the air. Four wideouts also have over 10 catches and three of them have over 200 yards receiving. Tre’Quan Smith is tops on the team with 20 catches for 430 yards and seven scores. By the way, he also is averaging 21.5 yards a catch.
It has been a total team effort for the Knights throughout their five-game winning streak. Last week, nine different players scored touchdowns to pitch in on their 63 point total. One of those was a pick-six from Tre Neal out their secondary. If there has been one weakness that this unit has shown it’s in the back half. Currently, they rank 66th in the nation allowing 223 yards a game. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue as Navy runs the ball 95 percent of the time. The front seven is solid, sitting at 18th in the country, allowing only 118 on the ground.
Navy Midshipmen (5-1)
You could call the loss to the Memphis Tigers last week a let down for Navy. That is because they played their most undisciplined game of the year. The Midshipmen pride themselves on their ability to play smart football and not become their own worst enemy. Last Saturday, that wasn’t the case. The Middies turned the ball over five times and had five crucial penalties that squashed promising drives.
Quarterback Zach Abey wishes he could have the last contest over. Although, he did manage to run for 146 yards on 37 carries and three scores. Unfortunately, he tossed up two interceptions on seven throws and fumbled the ball late in the first half. Also, his pitches weren’t on point and that caused another fumble in the third quarter. Besides this bad performance, Abey has done quite well in 2017. Overall, he has transported the pigskin 183 times on the ground for over 1,000 yards and 12 scores.
Running backs Chris High and Malcolm Perry carry the football when Zach Abey isn’t. Together, they have combined for 125 carries for over 800 yards and four touchdowns. In all, seven Navy tailbacks have recorded a touchdown to lead the nation’s number one rushing attack (397 ypg).
Obviously, passing the football is something the Navy Midshipmen don’t find themselves doing very often. The Mids like to use the play-action pass after their potent rushing attack has softened up the opposing team’s secondaries. When they do exercise that option, they look to wideout Tyler Carmona to come up big. So far so good, as Carmona has reeled in five balls for 204 yards and three trips to the promised land.
Defensively, Navy is succumbing to 28 points and 398.2 yards per match. Linebacker Sean Williams leads the Midshipmen with 47 tackles. Defensive end D.J. Palmore has three sacks and safety Micah Thomas has one interception.
Prediction
Las Vegas has the Central Florida Knights as a 7.5 point favorite and that is because they deserve to be. They have earned the right to be a touchdown or more favorite because they are winning their games so impressively. Nevertheless, Navy is a whole other animal with their triple-option attack and at home in Annapolis. For that reason, the hook on the seven points here concerns me a bit.
With that being said, I believe there is a much better play for bettors in this AAC Match-up. With both of these teams having the ability to put points on the board, I think the over 66 is ripe for the pickings. Yes, Central Florida has played good defense but hey did give up 21 to East Carolina. It’s not too much to ask that the Middies put up that if not more at home. Also, I can’t foresee the Middies defense holding UCF to under 35 points. So, take the Over 66 and watch an exciting game that is filled with plenty of posts. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
Trends
The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Under is 9-4 in the Knights last 13 games overall.
The Midshipmen are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 conference games.
The Midshipmen are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games.
The Over is 10-2 in Midshipmen last 12 home games.
