The Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) and Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) square off for a shot at the national championship.The game will begin Thursday, Jan. 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
In the SEC Championship game, Alabama dominated Missouri 42-13. Derrick Henry had an outstanding performance running the ball in the victory, carrying it 20 times for 141 yards and two TDs. DeAndrew White also had a big game with 101 yards and a TD on four catches. In the Big Ten Championship game, Ohio State won easily over Wisconsin 42-13. Devin Smith had a huge game for the Buckeyes, totaling four receptions for 137 yards and three TDs. Ezekiel Elliott also had a big day, contributing 220 yards and two TDs on 20 attempts.
Alabama is a 10-point favorite against the Buckeyes. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at 56 points. While the Crimson Tide have a good Straight Up (SU) record this season (12-1), they’ve played below expectations with a 4-8-1 record Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Crimson Tide have records of 5-0 SU and 2-2-1 ATS. When the Crimson Tide run the ball, they do so with authority. They rattle off 5.6 yards each time they rush during home games, 20th in the land. Alabama usually finishes home games strong, averaging 10.2 points in the fourth quarter. Don’t expect many blunders and oversights from Alabama that could cost them the game. They are one of the least penalized teams in Division I (22nd), averaging only 40 penalty yards per game.
On the other side, the Buckeyes have 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Ohio State has a record of 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS. Hopefully Alabama’s defense is better than its timing. It will be matching up against a Buckeyes offense that is on fire as of late, averaging 511.6 total yards over their last five games. Lately, the Buckeyes have discovered the secret to a better pass defense. They’re allowing only 199.0 passing YPG over their last five matchups. There is no feeling-out process for the Buckeyes, who average nine points in the first quarter of away games.
Predictions: SU Winner – OHST, ATS Winner – OHST, O/U – Under
Notes
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Alabama is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Ohio State’s last 12 games.
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Ohio State is 10-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Alabama is 11-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Ohio State is 12-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Alabama is 9-1 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
This season, Ohio State is undefeated (4-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 5-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
According to national passing ranks, Ohio State has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 50th nationally) will face the 61st-ranked pass defense of Alabama, while its 17th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 22nd-ranked passing game of the Crimson Tide.
The Alabama rushing attack is ranked only 37th in the nation, while the Ohio State run defense is ranked 33rd. The Buckeyes rushing game is ranked just 11th, compared to the second-ranked run defense of the Crimson Tide.
Ohio State has allowed 25.2 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 35th in the nation. Alabama has scored 45.5 points per game at home (ranked eighth overall).
