The right to play in the national championship game is at stake when the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) play the Oregon Ducks (12-1) in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Both Oregon and Florida State seek to continue their winning ways this week. The game will begin Thursday, Jan. 1 at 5:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
Oregon easily got past Arizona 51-13 in the Pac-12 Championship game. Marcus Mariota had a big game through the air in the win, completing 25 of 38 pass attempts for 303 yards and two TDs. Darren Carrington also had a big game with 126 yards and a TD on seven catches. In the ACC Championship game, Florida State won in a tight one over Georgia Tech 51-13. Rashad Greene had a huge game for the Seminoles, totaling seven receptions for 123 yards and two TDs. Mackey Award winner Nick O’Leary had a great game as well, adding 97 yards and a TD on three receptions.
Oregon is a seven-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 70 points. The Ducks enter the game with records of 12-1 Straight Up (SU) and 9-4 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Oregon is undefeated SU and ATS in its last five games. They come into the game with America’s sixth-ranked home scoring offense in the nation, averaging 45.6 points per game in their own stadium. Judging from past games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Oregon passing game, which currently ranks 11th in the land with 308.9 passing yards per game. Recently, the Ducks have really been causing problems for their opponents. During its last five games, Oregon has only given up 17 points, much less than its season average of 22.5 points. The Seminoles probably won’t run the ball very often at Oregon. They are one of the least-effective running teams in the land, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game. An important aspect of the game will be if the Ducks can capitalize off of Florida State’s propensity to give away the football. They currently rank 106th in the nation with 2.1 turnovers per game. Keep an eye on Oregon to turn it up a notch during the second quarter, when they average a Division I-best 17.3 points per game.
As for their opponent, the Seminoles are unsuccessful ATS with a 3-10 record this season even though they have a 13-0 SU record. Odds are Florida State will continue to rely on its passing attack, where its 299.9 passing yards per game ranks 14th in the nation. Lately, the Seminoles have discovered the secret to a better pass defense. They’re allowing only 182.4 passing YPG over their last five matchups. The Seminoles usually get a boost in the third quarter, when they average 8.6 points this year. Given Oregon’s history, this game could come down to penalties. The Ducks have been one of the most penalized teams in the land this year, with 73 penalty yards per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – ORE, ATS Winner – ORE, O/U – Over
Notes
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State’s last 5 games.
Florida State is 8-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Oregon is 10-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Florida State is 8-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Oregon is 12-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
This season, Florida State is undefeated (3-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle.
Oregon is undefeated (6-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 3-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Florida State defense has forced an average of 2.1 turnovers per game this season, but Oregon is a perfect 3-0 SU when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
Among all FBS teams, the Oregon offensive passing game is ranked 11th in the nation, while the Florida State pass defense is only ranked 51st. The Seminoles passing attack is ranked 14th, compared to the 103rd-ranked pass defense of the Ducks.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Oregon is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 22nd-ranked rushing attack will face the 60th-ranked run defense of Florida State, while its 50th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 104th-ranked running game of the Seminoles.
Florida State has allowed 30.7 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 74th in the nation. Oregon has put up 45.6 points per contest at home (ranked sixth in FBS).
Oregon has given up 18.0 points per game at home, which is ranked 22nd in the nation. Florida State has put up 40.0 points per game in away games (ranked 10th overall).
