The oddsmakers think that both Notre Dame and Oklahoma have tough tasks ahead of them this weekend. Both teams are double-digit underdogs coming into their games with Clemson and Alabama, and many are calling for them to be blown out. After all, Clemson and Alabama have dominated the sport over the last few years, while neither Notre Dame nor Oklahoma has won a national title this decade. BetDSI has put up a prop on whether either underdog will be barking on Saturday.
Will Notre Dame or Oklahoma win in the CFP Semifinals?
Yes +225
No -300
Notre Dame is expected to have a little easier time than Oklahoma. The Fighting Irish are facing Clemson and not Alabama, and the Tigers are seen as seen as the lesser of two evils in this regard.
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Clemson is still a very formidable opponent. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the country, a burgeoning star at quarterback, and one of the most underrated running backs in college football. Yet there are reasons to be optimistic for a Notre Dame win.
Dexter Lawrence is likely to be suspended for this game as the result of a failed drug test. Although Clemson is deep at this position, he is probably the most talented player along the defensive line, and his absence would sting.
Additionally, the Tigers haven’t played a great team, or a great defense, this year. Clemson’s best wins this year were over Syracuse, North Carolina State and Texas A&M. While those are all good teams, it’s not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame beat an elite team when it knocked off Michigan in the season opener. The Fighting Irish were very good on the defensive side of the ball in the win, and they hit just enough big plays to edge the Wolverines. They also knocked off Syracuse later in the year, and they were much more dominant against the Orange than Clemson to boot.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Notre Dame’s defense frustrate Clemson’s offense, but the offense needs to hit some big plays to beat Clemson. Ian Book has given the Irish an additional threat in the passing game, while the running game has been sound. That could be just the right formula for the Irish to get the upset.
The Sooners have history working against them. They are 0-2 in the CFP with losses to Clemson and Georgia, and they will be facing an Alabama team that has won its last three CFP semifinal games by 17 points or more.
We know that Oklahoma can score. They have the best offense in the country by a wide margin, and they have been able to light up the scoreboard against every team they have faced. Kyler Murray was fantastic all year, and this team barely missed a beat despite the loss of Baker Mayfield and multiple running backs going down with injuries this year.
However, the defense was abysmal throughout the year. The Sooners gave up yards and points in bunches, and that led to Mike Stoops being fired in early October. Ruffin McNeill has not helped matters too much, and this is an Alabama team that can score.
The Crimson Tide might not punt against Oklahoma. Alabama is likely going to be able to move the ball with abandon against this defense, and it’s hard to see a path to victory for the Sooners. Their best hope is a shootout, and that’s a difficult proposition against a Nick Saban team that has had time to prepare.
