Champions League November 5 – Matchday 4
Barcelona vs Ajax Odds: Barcelona -1.5 -110 / Ajax +1.5 -110 Total Over/Under 3: Over -135 / Under +115The talk of the town is Luis Suarez. The former Ajax man is now eligible to play for Barcelona, and he will look to put the final nail in the Ajax coffin in Group F. With a Barcelona win and a PSG win securing the French and Spanish clubs to the Round of 16 through only four matches, Ajax and APOEL will have nothing left to play for.
Ajax has poured in 11 goals in their domestic and Cup matches since the 3 – 1 loss to Barcelona on Matchday 3, so they will hope to keep that kind of pace going with a Barcelona side that we all know can surely find the net.
Celta Vigo did shut out Barcelona this weekend in La Liga, so maybe Ajax should ask them how they did it. It is easy to keep Neymar frustrated, as he will simply start fouling and running his mouth, but Messi will look to add to his amazing Champions League stats.
Neymar is obviously a good player who can score and creates space, but we all know this offense relies on Messi. It has been surprising that Ajax has struggled this much, although we are talking about having to contend with the likes of Barcelona and PSG in this group. Ajax has such a great ability to score, and they have scored a goal in all three matches of group play, but it has ended there each time.[divider]
Porto vs Athletic Bilbao Odds: Porto Pk +105 / Bilbao Pk -125 Total Over/Under 2.5: Over +105 / Under -125Porto’s Manager Julen Lopetegui looked like a genius on Matchday 3 bringing on Ricardo Quaresma. Within four minutes of being in the match, Quaresma found the net to secure all three points for Porto in a 2 – 1 win over Bilbao.
Porto and Bilbao have both played two matches in their domestic campaigns since their meeting on Oct. 21 in the Champions League, and both went 2 – 0 without giving up a single goal to their opponents. Bilbao put together an incredible weekend shutting down Sevilla, who are at the top of the table.
Bilbao really needed the points to get back in Primera after getting off to a rough start to the domestic campaign. They have never been able to keep a clean sheet vs a Portuguese side in nine matches played.
Porto has yet to taste defeat in Group H, and it is hard to expect it to happen here, even if they are away from home today. They simply have more weapons to turn to than Bilbao does. This has the potential to be a low-scoring match though, as both have really been defensive-minded especially lately and that includes their domestic play as mentioned.[divider]
AS Roma vs Bayern Munich Odds: Roma +1.5 +125 / Bayern -1.5 -150 Total over 3.5: Over +115 / Under -135Simply outclassed! Bayern’s performance on Matchday 3 in Rome was a spectacle to watch. The phrase “Early and often” comes to mind when you reflect on what Bayern did to one of the top Italian clubs there is. How is this for stats? 612 of 655 passes completed with 23 shots and four goals within a half hour of play.
Now Roma has to rebound from their largest defeat at home in their rich European history. Their record in Germany does not bode well for them, as they are 2 – 9 vs German clubs away from home.
This will be Roma’s fifth match in 15 days between CL and Serie A, and they are coming off a 2 – 0 loss to Napoli this weekend. Bayern still remains undefeated in Bundesliga and is now atop the table with 24 points and only three goals allowed on their domestic Campaign.
Naturally our first question is how can Roma expect to find a result after a 7 – 1 humiliation on Match Day 3 at home? The line setters are giving Roma zero respect with a +900 on the 3-way line. I have been following these leagues for decades, and it is tough to remember the last time we saw a +900 on Roma, no matter what the situation.
This will not be a repeat of what we saw on Match Day 3. Roma will not give Bayern seven goals today. They simply gave up after it was 3 – 0 and walked around for the last 70 minutes. Totti came out of the Napoli match early in the second half of the Napoli match, even though they were down 1 – 0 at the time, so he will obviously be ready to go.
Bayern can advance to the Round of 16 with a win at home and not have to worry about Matches 5 or 6 remaining, so of course they would love to get that out of the way as soon as possible.[divider]
Moscow vs Man City Odds: Moscow +1.5+135 / Man City -1.5 -160 Total Over/Under 3.5: Over +110 / Under -130Matchday 3 was tough to watch when these two faced off on Oct. 21. The empty stands made it feel more like a scrimmage than a match of importance. Man City took an early 2 – 0 lead and appeared to stop playing. I don’t know what happened in the Man City locker room at half time, but obviously the speech was one that should be forgotten.
Moscow had all the pressure in the second half and, to anyone watching, it was almost obvious that Moscow was going to get that second goal to draw and get a much-needed point at home.
Much has been made of the Man City defense this season, but they put together a nice 1 – 0 win at home in the Manchester Derby this past weekend. Since Matchday 3, Moscow has struggled in their domestic campaign, with a draw and a loss this past weekend to Zenit 1 – 0, so you would tend to think they are looking forward to this match in England.
Ironically, these two will meet on November 5th for the second straight year in Group Stages. Man City won 2 – 1 last year here in England. Moscow has played 5 matches on English soil and have never secured 3 points, with a 0 – 2 – 3 record. They can hope the struggles at home for Man City continue in European Competitions, as Man City has only 2 wins in 8 home matches in Champions League. Moscow now knows what they need to do. If they come out with the intensity they had in the second half of Match Day 3, this will be a wide open match.[divider]
Chelsea vs Maribor Odds: Chelsea -1.5 -120 / Maribor +1.5 +100 Total Over/Under 3: Over -105 / Under -115Chelsea made quite a statement on Matchday 3 at home vs Maribor. With six goals and a clean sheet, they took command of Group G and are two points above Schalke as we play the return leg. Chelsea has not suffered a single defeat in any competition or domestic match since losing to Atl Madrid in April here in Champions League play.
They will be without Loïc Rémy, who scored the first goal in the 6 – 0 win, but had to be replaced just 3 minutes later. Maribor does not have much success vs English sides at home with a 1 – 7 – 2 record, but they did muster up that only win here last season vs Wigan in last year’s Europa League.
They will have two of their last three matches at home, so they will need to try to take advantage of it to survive this group and make it to the Round of 16.
It is going to take a lot more than the fans that will try to give Maribor a lift at Ljudski vrt to get a result vs Chelsea. No one is better than Jose Mourinho at getting clubs prepared for big matches. This is certainly not the biggest match Chelsea will have as they progress past the Group Stage, but he will have them understanding that they need to come out as aggressive as they were in the 6 – 0 win to get three important points.
This is a nightmare match up for even the best European clubs in the world, much less this little Slovenian club.[divider]
APOEL vs Paris SG Odds: APOEL +1.5 +125 / PSG -1.5 -145 Total Over/Under 3: Over +100 / Under -120PSG sits atop the Group E table with seven points, but there is still no sign of Ibrahimovic, and we will not be seeing him in this match either. The French side can secure a spot in the Round of 16 with a win, and a Barcelona win over Ajax.
Home field has certainly been helpful to PSG, as they have gone 30 straight matches without a loss at Parc des Princes in European competitions, dating back to 2006.
In direct opposition, APOEL has never won an away match in Champions League, with 9 attempts and a 0 – 4 – 5 record. They have 1 point that came from a draw vs Ajax on Match Day 2 at home, and with a loss here they will be eliminated with 2 matches remaining in Group play.
It would be nice to have Ibrah back, but does PSG really need him? There will be bigger fish to fry as the competition moves on, and the French side will almost surely be moving on to the Round of 16. APOEL not only has 1 point, but they have only scored 1 goal after a meeting with everyone in the group as we start the back side of the Group Stage.[divider]
BATE vs Donetsk Odds: Donetsk -1.5 -150 Total Over/Under 3: Over -110/Under -110Luiz Andriano had four goals to his name before halftime and added a fifth on his second converted penalty kick to account for five goals in a 7 – 0 win on Matchday 3 in Belarus. Only one other player in the rich history of this competition can say they have scored five goals in a single match on this stage, and that was Messi in 2012.
This was the second dismantling of BATE in Group play, as they lost their opening match to Porto 6 – 0. They have given up 14 goals in only three matches, and that gives them a -12 goal differential with 3 matches still remaining. The record for most goals allowed in the Group stage is 22 with a -19 GD in the 2011-12 CL by Zagreb.
Donetsk is leading the group with only two goals allowed through three matches, and they can boost their chances of advancing to the Round of 16 with three points to keep pace with Porto.
We should be able to expect BATE to actually score here today. It is not like they are offensively inept, despite the horrendous goal differential, so if not now, when? There are scoring threats on this club with Alyaksandr Karnitsky, who leads their domestic league in scoring, and Mikhail Gordejchuk and Nikolay Signevich both being able to contribute up front.[divider]
Schalke vs Sporting Odds: Schalke +0.5 -115 / Sporting -0.5 -105 Total Over/Under 2.5: Over -120 / Under +100The first 15 minutes of the 4 – 3 win for Schalke on Matchday 3 were quiet and uneventful. The next 75 + 3 minutes were jam-packed with adventure. Sporting took a 1 – 0 lead in the 16th minute, and then found themselves down a man when Mauricio picked up two yellows over 14 minutes and was sent off.
Schalke tied it up at one and we went to the locker room tied at 1-1. Five goals in the second half, with a penalty kick in extra time for Schalke, and now they are sitting in the second spot with five points, two behind Chelsea. The German side has faced Portuguese opponents nine times in European competition and has only suffered one defeat. They will look to better their position in a rematch of Matchday 3 in Portugal.
Sporting Lisbon has to feel like they played great considering they were a man down and were tied 3-3 as regulation expired, but they still have nothing to show for it.
Since Schalke has brought in Coach Matteo, it has certainly invigorated this offense out of the gate. Schalke looked great this weekend as well in their domestic Bundelsiga with a 1 – 0 win.
Sporting has given up five goals in two matches in their domestic campaign since the Champions League match on the 21st.
