There are two matches taking place in Champions League on March 7, and I will preview both.
Arsenal face a 5 – 1 deficit as they return for the back leg of their round of 16 tie with Bayern Munich.
Napoli return to Naples to try to erase a 3 – 1 result from their front leg loss to Real Madrid.
Obviously, out of the two matches taking place today, Arsenal face the stiffest challenge. Making up a four-goal difference against a Bayern club that is cruising certainly gives the English side a tough hill to climb.
Arsene Wenger appeared to be resting Alexi Sanchez against Liverpool this past weekend in Premier League play. Sanchez did start the second half with Liverpool holding a 2 – 0 lead, and Theo Walcott also did not start, but came in as a sub in the 74th minute.
Bayern Munich stretched their unbeaten run in all competitions to 19 matches this past weekend. Franck Ribery has come off the bench in the last two matches for Bayern, after missing the entire month of February to injury. Ribery scored the third goal in the clubs 3 – 0 win over FC Koln this weekend, his first league goal since September 21, 2016 vs Hertha Berlin.
The line setters have Bayern as the favorite, so let me throw the lines up and go from there.
Theliines I am using are coming from DSI, because they are the only book you should be using.
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Arsenal +200
Bayern +125
Draw +270
Handicap/Spread:
Arsenal 0/Pk +130
Bayern 0/Pk -150
Total 3:
Over -120
Under +100
I am going to assume that most people are wondering how the hell Arsenal is going to reply.
Making up a four goal deficit is not likely to happen, but Arsenal do have an away goal in pocket.
Has it been done before? You bet it has, and it happened in the 1985/86 competition.
Borussia Mönchengladbach defeated Real Madrid 5 – 1 in their first leg, and Real Madrid took the second leg 4 – 0. The lone away goal for Madrid was the difference, as the two tied 5 – 5 on aggregate and Madrid advanced. There have been two other cases with clubs who have made up four-goal differences, however.
Bayern has eliminated Arsenal from the Round of 16 the last three times they’ve met at this stage. It happened in the 2004/05 tournament, as well as the 2013 and 2014 campaigns.
Arsenal has played 17 matches against German competition at home, and hold a 11W – 1D – 5L record.
If the Gunners plan on making up the difference this year, they will have to do it with some absences.
Mesut Özil, Aaron Ramsey, and Mohamed Elneny are listed as doubtful, and Santi Cazorla is injured. In fact, Cazorla was ruled out for the entire season.
For Bayern, Philipp Lahm is suspended, Jérôme Boateng is injured, and Manuel Neuer is doubtful.
We will have an all-Greek officiating staff monitoring the match.
Referee:
Tasos Sidiropoulos (GRE)
Assistant referees:
Damianos Efthimiadis (GRE)
Polychronis Kostaras (GRE)
Additional assistant referees:
Charalambos Kalogeropoulos (GRE)
Alexandros Aretopoulos (GRE)
Fourth official:
Lazaros Dimitriadis (GRE)
Arsenal has been infamous for getting to this level in Champions League and falling apart in recent years.
Should Arsenal fail to advance to the quarterfinals, it will mark the seventh straight year that the Gunners were eliminated from the competition at this point. Being down 5 – 1 is a daunting task, and it will obviously take a minor miracle for Arsenal to advance.
Scoring five goals, and keeping Bayern off the board will be quite a trick to pull off.
Luckily, the line setters are only asking us to deal with three goals on the total.
I am going to touch on that total, and suggest the likelihood of goals being scored again.
Bayern has no need to get into an up-and-down affair, but that wouldn’t bother them either.
There is no chance for Arsenal to advance, but there is chance for us to cash a ticket.
Suggested Play:
Arsenal / Bayern Over 3 @ -120
___________________________________
Let’s reveal the lines for the other match of the day.
Napoli vs Real Madrid
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Napoli +185
Madrid +135
Draw +285
Handicap/Spread:
Napoli 0/Pk +115
Madrid 0/Pk -135
Total 3:
Over -135
Under +115
We have an all-Turkish officiating crew for this contest, so let’s reveal that list.
Referee:
Cüneyt Çakır (TUR)
Assistant referees:
Bahattin Duran (TUR)
Tarik Ongun (TUR)
Additional assistant referees:
Hüseyin Göçek (TUR)
Barış Şimşek (TUR)
Fourth official:
Mustafa Eyisoy (TUR)
Napoli does not have quite the uphill battle Arsenal faces, but they still have plenty of work to do in Naples for the return leg of the Round of 16 in Champions League.
Lorenzo Insigne put Napoli on the board first in the front leg played in Spain, but it did not last long.
Real Madrid scored three unanswered goals from Benzema, Kroos and Casemiro, and now look to advance to the quarterfinals of the competition. The Spanish side are, of course, defending title holders of the Champions League trophy, looking to earn their 12th tournament win overall in the competition.
This is only the second appearance for Napoli in the Round of 16 in Champions League, as they are looking for their first advancement to the quarterfinals in club history. In direct opposition, Real Madrid are looking for their seventh consecutive appearance in the quarterfinals.
The Italian side has hosted six matches against Spanish opposition, and hold a 4W – 2D – 0L record.
As most of you know, I follow everything that goes on in Italy. Napoli came away with quite a win this past weekend, marching into Stadio Olimpico and taking out Roma 2 – 1. The win brought Napoli within two points of second place Roma in the Serie A table.
Once again, Barcelona and Real Madrid are battling for supremacy in La Liga. Only a single point separate the two at the top of the Spanish Premier League table entering round 27 this weekend.
Weather may be a factor in Naples on Tuesday, as the forecast calls for rain all day. It may dwindle as the evening hours approach, but we can still expect some wet conditions at Sao Paolo. Regardless, Napoli has to simply come up with a 2 – 0 home win to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals. With an away goal in tow, a 3 – 3 aggregate would favor the Italian side with that road tally.
Now the trick for Napoli will be keeping Real Madrid from finding their own away goal in the tie.
Can they do it? Real manager Zinedine Zidane rested Ronaldo against Eibar this past weekend in La Liga action. Gareth Bale and Alvaro Morata were suspended and rested as a result, so Madrid should be at full capacity for the most part.
Answer is? No way on God’s green Earth does Napoli stop Real Madrid from scoring. I don’t care what the weather looks like, because it will not stop the Spanish attack for 90 minutes. Either will Napoli, so expect Madrid to advance, and expect goals to be scored here too.
I suggest a line movement on the total, because the Over 3.5 is gorgeous at +!25.
Suggested Play:
Napoli / Real Madrid Over 3.5 @ +125
I will see you for tomorrow’s matches, as I continue the Champions League previews.
Make it Rain!!
