The Champions League semifinals kick off this week, leaving four clubs eyeing for the Major club competition trophy.
The first leg of the semifinals kicks off on Tuesday, May 2, as Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid meet at Santiago Bernabéu. There is plenty of history between these two, not only in La Liga of course, but on the Champions League stage as well.
The other Champions League semifinals encounter comes at Stade Louis II. Juventus heads to France to take on AS Monaco, although the history between the two clubs in nothing close to that of the Madrid series. Juventus and Monaco did meet in the 2015 Champions League quarterfinals, however. Juventus held Monaco to two clean sheets in successive legs, and eventually moved on to the finals, where they lost to Barcelona, 3 – 1.
I will get into more of what these four clubs have done in their club competition history later.
Speaking of quarterfinals though, I hope you caught my Champions League QF article. I will highlight the link there for you to access, if you want to see what I talked about in the quarters.
What’s nice about getting to this point of the tournament, is that we all know the names and faces involved.
Juventus and Real Madrid are arguably two of the most recognized clubs on the planet, much less in Europe. Atletico Madrid certainly has an outspoken manager in Diego Simeone, but Atletico has yet to hold the Champions League trophy in their club history.
AS Monaco is definitely in unfamiliar territory, and has no international hardware to speak of. Unless you want to include a few Cup of the Alps wins back in the 1970’s and 1980’s. That holds about as much significance to me as changing my socks in the morning, so let’s move on.
I like to start with the lines, because that is ultimately why I do this stuff.
Champions League Semifinals Lines
May 2
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Real Madrid -125
Atletico +370
Draw +265
Handicap/Spread:
Real Madrid -0.5 -125
Atletico +0.5 +105
Total 2.5:
Over +100
Under -120
Referee:
Martin Atkinson (ENG)
May 3
Monaco vs Juventus
3-Way 1×2 Lines:
Monaco +205
Juventus +150
Draw +240
Handicap/Spread:
Monaco 0/Pk +115
Juventus 0/Pk -135
Total 2.5:
Over -110
Under -110
Referee:
Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP)
________________________
As I mentioned, anyone who follows La Liga, or European football in general, realizes that Atletic and Real Madrid are in for a battle. Two battles in fact, because obviously these two will clash again at Vicente Calderón for the return leg of the Champions League semifinals.
THORN IN MY SIDE!
That pretty much sums what Atletico Madrid must feel like recently in Champions League action.
This will mark the fourth consecutive campaign that Real and Atletico will meet in exterior club competition.
In 2014, the two met in the finals in Lisbon, Portugal. Real Madrid added their 10th European trophy to their showcase, defeating Atleti 4 – 1. Don’t be too mislead by the result, because it was 1 – 1 going to extra time. Real Madrid went nuts in the extra stanza, and found the net three times en route to victory.
In the next 2014/15 campaign, Real and Atleti met in the Champions League quarterfinals. A scoreless first leg at Calderon led to an epic clash at the Bernabeu for the second leg. Real’s Javier Hernández became a hero with an 88th-minute goal that advanced Madrid to the Champions League Semifinals to face Juventus. Juventus went on the finals to face Barcelona, which, I said above, that Juve lost 3 – 1.
In the 2015/16 event, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid met in the finals for the second time in three campaigns. In continuation with my THORN theme, once again Atletico fell to Real Madrid at the San Siro in Italy. Another 1 – 1 battle in regulation time led to a second extra time final between the two clubs.
Neither side could settle the matter in the extra 30 minutes, so they went to penalties.
As history shows, Real Madrid went on to win their 11th piece of European hardware, and Atleti was left with their heads in their hands, defeated again.
They say, “The third time is a charm,” right?
Hmm, so what the hell is the fourth time then?
Obviously, if Real Madrid advance to the finals again, even more Diego Simeone rumors are going to be produced. The Atleti head man doesn’t appear to be going anywhere in my opinion, but certain outlets refuse to stop talking about him possibly leaving. Again I will say in my opinion, that I think Diego is going to stay here until he does finally win a big trophy. Not to discredit his one La Liga title, and the one Europa League title, but Champions League is just what’s left to do here for him. I personally don’t think he will leave until he gets his Champions League title, so we will see how that works out.
Anyway, what does all this lead to?
Meeting for the fourth time in four years is just amazing actually, considering it is always late in the event. Two finals matches played between the two in the last four years, and you know they both want this.
If anyone questions motivation on the Champions League stage, then you might want to check yourself at the door.
This is ‘big boy football’ kids, so watch and learn from the best in the world.
I saw a stat on the UEFA site about some domestic stats between Real and Atleti.
They’ve met 204 times in Spanish league and cup matches, showing Real Madrid with 103 Wins, 50 Draws and 51 Losses in the series.
This will be Real Madrid’s seventh straight appearance in the Champions League semifinals. That will set the standard as the record in UEFA competition, the moment Ref. Martin Atkinson blows the whistle to start the match.
This will also be Real Madrid’s 28th UEFA Cup semifinals appearance, dating back to when club competitions began.
Okay, well listen. I could go on and on about stats relating to Real Madrid’s wonderful history. All fun and games to me, because I would rather sit here and talk about what I expect to see on Tuesday.
I couldn’t just do a Champions League Semifinals article without mentioning those stats, and I will do it again for the Monaco / Juventus match. It is relevant, and history is certainly a cool thing to read about and discuss again, but how about a play?
What can we expect, other than a physical, grinding, first half of play, with neither side wanting to give much?
I assume some of you remember the work I did at BETDSI for a couple of years. Mentioning that Atletico Madrid would play to a 1 – 0, 1 – 1 type of match back then, was the easiest prediction I could make. These two met back on April 8 in La Liga action, and a 1 – 1 draw was the outcome.
Bettors can find the ‘Both Teams to Score’ prop bet sitting at -110, at the sites that offer the action.
I completely think a 1 – 1 result can happen, although i do think it might take some time to happen. The first half could be a slow, feeling out process, that we are used to hearing from the announcers who cover the matches.
I am suggesting that play for this match, and I am also taking the +0.5 handicap with Atletico.
You are reading that correctly, because I just told you I expect a 1 – 1 result. Those two bets earn us the funds so…
Suggested Plays:
Real Madrid / Atletico Madrid
Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ -110
Atleti +0.5 AH @ +105
Now we turn our attention to France. I am thinking that Monaco won’t have the same success scoring, as they had getting to the Champions League semifinals.
Once again, I will point you to my Juventus Futures Betting article. As you make your way through that piece, you know what my expectation is on Juventus. Since I have put it out there that I expect Juventus to win three trophies this campaign, let’s back it up. Oh, wait, we need some stats and stuff before I go on.
There really isn’t a lot to reveal when it comes to head-to-head stuff here. Juventus and Monaco last met, as I said, back in 2015. The only other time these two have met was in the 1998 Champions League semifinals. You might recognize the names Alex Del Piero and Zinedane Zidane. They were both in a Juventus uniform at that time, and Diego Simeone was with Inter Milan as a player then too.
Other than that, there are no other meetings in UEFA club competition between Juventus and Monaco.
The one big stat that jumps out from the Monaco stats, comes when they travel to Italy. Zero wins in seven attempts on Italian soil for Monaco in their history.
Do you think I might mention that when I post the Champions League semifinals second leg article? Don’t even doubt it! But, we are in France for this first leg, and Juventus only has 4 Wins, 2 Draws, and 5 Losses in their travels to France in their history.
I am no fan of juice, as anyone who knows me certainly knows by now. This guy here has been posting plays on the internet for 20 years, and I have still never suggested a play higher then -135.
I see services and casual bettors offering -150, -200, and even crazier offers to their clients or friends. Whatever it is they call that, I call it ridiculous. There is no money to be made, in my opinion, when you start getting past the -135 limit. Anyone conscious of ROI knows why you follow certain people.
That -135 offer is the price the line setters have issued on Juventus, and the 0/Pk DNB.
I certainly do not like suggesting plays at -135, but I don’t see Monaco getting any type of result. It is great to see the rejuvenation of Radamel Falcao, and he is obviously a big part of Monaco’s success this year. We cannot overlook what Kylian Mbappe has done as well, because he too has been outstanding this campaign.
There is one side on the planet Earth that can slow anyone down, however. Oh, you need proof? How about SHUTTING DOWN BARCELONA in the Champions League quarterfinals. Not once… BUT TWICE! Even in Spain people! Shut up! Name me one club who has managed to shut down Barcelona for 180+ minutes? I’ll wait for your responses, and I might be waiting a while.
By the way, I did predict the 2 – 2 result with Juventus vs Atalanta this past weekend in Serie A. I don’t know how many people you follow, who called Juventus to both get past Barcelona, and then called a 2 – 2 crazy match this past weekend.
You just gots to know, and that is what I will leave you with. With a prediction or two, of course. Bet365 is showing +150 on Juventus outright as I write this up. Yeah, that’s sold, and it goes in with a play on the total. 3 – 1 Juventus is your score, in the second match of the Champions League semifinals.
Suggested Plays:
AS Monaco vs Juventus
Juventus 3-Way to Win @ +150
Total Over 2.5 @ -110
Bet365 also shows Juventus to score before the 51st minute of play. Hmm hmm, you feel free to take advantage of that too!
Now get your Champions League semifinals on people! May the Rain be with you!!
In Bocca AL Lupo!
