The Miami Heat (1-1) welcome the Charlotte Hornets (1-1) to AmericanAirlines Arena for their home opener. The game will air on Fox Sports Carolina at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 20, 2018.
Miami is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216.5 points.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Hornets’ last matchup, they easily covered the 3-point spread against the Orlando Magic, 120-88. The game’s combined points (208) were under the O/U total of 222. The Hornets had a better free throw rate (0.185 vs. 0.106) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.560 vs. 0.415). With 26 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Kemba Walker was the top scorer from either team.
The Heat won a close one over the Washington Wizards in their last contest, 113-112, despite being 6-point underdogs. The total points for the game (225) were over the projected point total of 215. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 17.5). Washington, meanwhile, did a terrific job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (29-39; 74.4 percent). Josh Richardson was the top scorer from either team with 28 points on 8-for-21 shooting.
Miami could dominate on the defensive side of the ball as they clash against one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The Heat rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while Charlotte is 25th in effective field goal percentage (0.509) dating back to the 2017-18 season. Additionally, the Hornets have been among the league’s best at getting to the line, ranking first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.231). The Heat, meanhwile, rank 29th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.220).
The Hornets have had records of 37-47 straight up (SU) and 36-44-3 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games including Charlotte have gone over the projected point total 53.0 percent of the time since last season.
Meanwhile, the Heat, have records of 45-39 SU and 50-34 ATS since last season. Games featuring Miami have finished under the projected point total 53.6 percent of the time over that same period.
The Heat won all four matchups against the Hornets last season. In the most recent game, Miami won 95-91. Miami’s 0.494 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Charlotte, who had a mark of 0.375.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Hornets, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When allowing under 100 points, Charlotte is 14-3 and Miami is 27-6.
The Heat are 34-22 when they reach the century mark, while the Hornets are 36-24.
Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (21.3) while Charlotte ranks 25th (24.7).
The Hornets rank 10th in second chance points per game (13.1) while the Heat rank 25th (11.2).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.4) while Charlotte ranks 20th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
The Hornets rank third in rebounds per game (45.5) while the Heat rank 17th (43.6).
Charlotte ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.6) while Miami ranks 14th (7.6).
The Hornets rank third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 15th (16.1).
Miami ranks 10th in three pointers attempted per game (30.5) while Charlotte ranks 18th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
The Heat rank 14th in points in the paint per game (44.6) while the Hornets rank 16th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.3).
Miami is 26th in the league with 9.7 fast break points per game while Charlotte is 28th with 9.3 fast break points per game.
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