It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Miami Heat (27-21) welcome the Charlotte Hornets (20-27) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 27, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 203 points with Miami opening as a 4-point favorite.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
In the Hornets’ last outing, they defeated the Atlanta Hawks, 121-110. The Hornets forced 20 turnovers and held the Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.8 (below their season average of 22.8). Dwight Howard played a pivotal role for Charlotte with 18 points, 15 rebounds and seven blocks.
The Heat lost a close one to the Sacramento Kings in their last matchup, 89-88. Sacramento’s 0.500 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Miami, who had a mark of 0.451. The Kings’ mark was below their season average of 0.502, while the Heat’s was below their season average of 0.525. With 23 points on 8-for-14 shooting, Goran Dragic led Miami in scoring.
Second-chance opportunities might be few and far between for Miami in this battle. The Heat rank 25th in offensive rebounding percentage (20.1 percent), while Charlotte ranks second in defensive rebounding percentage (81.3 percent). Additionally, the Hornets, who rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.231), will square off against the Heat, who rank 24th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.214).
Charlotte comes into the contest with records of 20-27 straight up (SU) and 18-24-4 against the spread (ATS). Of the Hornets’ 46 games that accepted bets, 24 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 27-21 SU and 22-24-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 48 games, 27 have finished under the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Howard (17.8 points, 15.8 rebounds, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Hornets while Hassan Whiteside (18.0 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.4 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Heat.
The Heat have won all three games against the Hornets this season, including a narrow one-point victory in their last matchup. Miami covered as a 7-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 211 points, which was 9.5 points above the projected point total of 201.5 points. Miami launched 28 three pointers, making 13 of them (46.4 percent). Charlotte was, on the other hand, 7-27 (25.9 percent). Howard finished with 14 points and 15 rebounds.
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Hornets, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Charlotte is 7-9-3 ATS with 9 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
Miami is 6-14-2 ATS at home with 12 unders, 9 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 15-5 when they allow under 100 points, while Charlotte is 8-2.
The Heat are 20-7 when they reach the century mark, while the Hornets are 19-11.
Miami ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (25.4) while Charlotte ranks 21st (29.9).
The Hornets rank 10th in second chance points per game (13.3) while the Heat rank 28th (10.1).
Charlotte ranks second in rebounds per game (46.6) while Miami ranks 20th (42.1).
The Heat rank second in assists allowed per game (20.0) while the Hornets rank 20th (23.6).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Charlotte ranks 21st in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
The Hornets rank second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while the Heat rank 15th (16.1).
Charlotte ranks second in steals allowed per game (6.6) while Miami ranks 11th (7.4).
The Hornets are 25th in the NBA with 9.3 fast break points per game while the Heat are 27th with 7.5 fast break points per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Charlotte is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Hornets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, up from 0.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 97.0 points per game (3.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 99.0 points per game (2.5 below their season average).
