Matt Forte and the Chicago Bears travel to play Harrison Smith and the Minnesota Vikings in the final game of the regular season. Things don’t seem likely to get better any time soon for struggling Minnesota, as they have lost two of their last three. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and will air on FOX.
The Week 11 matchup between the Vikings and the Bears ended in a 21-13 loss for Minnesota. Chad Greenway led the Vikings defense in that game, registering 11 tackles. Alshon Jeffery had a good outing for Chicago in that game, hauling in 11 receptions for 135 yards and one TD. Brandon Marshall had a big day as well, contributing 90 yards and two TDs on seven receptions.
Nobody is expecting a close score this week when the Bears, a heavy seven-point underdog, take on Minnesota. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of zero points. Even with a subpar Straight Up (SU) record of 6-9, the Vikings usually play better than expected, going 10-5 Against The Spread (ATS) so far this year. In the past five games, Minnesota is 2-3 SU and has a perfect 5-0 record ATS. They average 23.1 points per game and will look to expose the Chicago defense. The Bears are the worst-ranked road scoring defense in the NFL, giving up 31.9 points per game on the road. As for the Minnesota defense, a few key matchups could decide this game. Minnesota will have the upper hand when attempting to shut down the passing game. Chicago averages only 9.7 yards per pass, ranking 28th in the league. There will be plenty of opportunities for the Vikings to pick off Chicago’s quarterback. The Bears currently throw the 30th-most picks per game in the league with 1.3. The Vikings should try to take advantage of the slow-starting Bears defense, who give up 5.7 points per game in the first quarter. Minnesota’s special teams are one of its strengths. They earn 106.7 return yards per game, putting them third in the NFL.
On the other side, the Bears have 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Chicago has a record of 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Chicago should plan on tossing the ball frequently. Offenses have picked apart the pass defense of the Vikings, who allow a completion percentage of 66.3%, 27th in the league. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Vikings to keep up with Chicago’s defense in a few areas. The Minnesota offensive line, which ranks 28th in the league with 3.4 sacks allowed per home game, could be an area where the Bears attack. Teams need to stay focused in the first quarter against the fast-starting Bears, who average six points in the first 15 minutes during road games.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIN, ATS Winner – MIN, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 6 games.
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago’s last 9 games on the road.
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games when playing Minnesota.
Chicago is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota.
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota.
Chicago is 4-2 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Minnesota is 4-3 SU when leading after three quarters.
Minnesota is winless this season (0-5 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
When it comes to passing this season, Minnesota is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 28th-ranked passing attack will face the 31st-ranked pass defense of Chicago, while its eighth-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 13th-ranked passing game of the Bears.
Minnesota has given up 23.1 points per game at home this year, which is ranked only 20th in the league. Chicago has scored 22.9 points per contest on the road (ranked 12th overall).
