The Dallas Mavericks (13-26) meet the Chicago Bulls (13-25) at American Airlines Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports Chicago.
Dallas opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213.5 points.
Chicago Bulls vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction
The Bulls are hoping for a better outcome after their 124-115 loss to the Toronto Raptors in their last game. Converting at the free throw line was one of Toronto’s largest advantages. They were 19-19 (100.0 percent), while the Bulls were 16-19 (84.2 percent). Chicago’s Lauri Markkanen played well, recording 22 points and 12 rebounds.
In the Mavericks’ last matchup, they lost a tough one against the Golden State Warriors, 125-122. Golden State’s 17.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a mark of 15.2. The Warriors’ mark was below their season average of 21.7, while the Mavericks’ was below the 23.9 mark opponents have averaged against Golden State this season. Dallas’ Dwight Powell contributed 21 points and eight rebounds in the contest.
Dallas should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Dallas ranks third in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.8 percent), while Chicago forces the fewest turnovers (12.2 percent). Also, put-back points figure to be few and far between for the Bulls. They rank 23rd in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 20.1 percent, while the Mavericks are fourth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.8 percent).
Although Chicago has difficulty winning games straight up (13-25 SU), they are 21-14-3 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Bulls tend to go over the total (55.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Dallas is 13-26 SU and 20-19 ATS. In opposition of Chicago, a little over half of Mavericks games have finished under the total.
Dirk Nowitzki has averaged 15.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Dallas.
After the Mavericks won both meetings against the Bulls last season, these teams will clash for the first time this year. In the most recent game, Dallas won 99-98. Dallas had a better effective field goal percentage (0.545 vs. 0.488). Chicago, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.8 vs. 15.8).
Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bulls, ATS Winner – Bulls, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Chicago is 11-7-1 ATS on the road with 13 overs and 6 unders.
At home, Dallas is 10-10 ATS with 10 unders, 9 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 10-8 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Chicago is 5-5.
The Mavericks are 8-11 when they score over 100 points, while the Bulls are 11-10.
Dallas ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.7) while Chicago ranks 21st (45.4).
The Mavericks rank fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.2) while the Bulls rank 23rd in three pointers allowed per game (30.2).
Chicago ranks seventh in rebounds per game (45.1) while Dallas ranks 25th (40.7).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while the Bulls rank 16th (16.5).
Chicago ranks 17th in fast break points allowed per game (11.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (14.9).
The Bulls rank fifth in assists per game (23.7) while the Mavericks rank 17th (22.4).
Chicago ranks 23rd in second chance points per game (10.9) while Dallas ranks 29th (9.6).
The Bulls rank 24th in steals per game (6.9) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.6).
Neither of these teams are great at blocking the ball. Dallas is 25th in the league with 3.8 blocks per game while Chicago is 27th with 3.6 blocks per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Chicago is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Dallas is 5-0 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Bulls have scored an equal number of points as their opponents. For the season, Chicago has lost by an average of 5.6 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 112.4 points per game (10.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (5.1 above their season average).
