The Milwaukee Bucks head to the United Center to take on the Chicago Bulls in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Monday, Apr. 27 and will air on CSN-CHI.
The Bulls lost a tough one against the Bucks 92-90 on Saturday. Jimmy Butler was the game’s high scorer, finishing with 33. O.J. Mayo led the team in scoring with 18 points on 6-for-11 shooting.
Chicago is a heavy eight-point favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is 188 points. The Bulls look to build on their records of 50-32 Straight Up (SU) and 39-43 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS when playing their division. The Bulls are a phenomenal shooting team from the line with 19.7 free throws made per game, one of the highest marks in the NBA. Chicago has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where they rack up an average of 45.7 rebounds per game. Turning to the defensive side, the Bulls have limited opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing 6.6 three-pointers made per game. The Bulls are the fifth-best team in the league at blocking shots, averaging 5.8 blocks per game. Expect Chicago to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Bucks, who are one of the most foul-prone teams in the league with an average of 22.1 fouls per game.
On the other side, the Bucks head into the game with records of 45-35-2 ATS and 41-41 SU. Although they haven’t done very well in road games against divisional foes (3-5), Milwaukee does sport a nice 6-2 record ATS. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Bucks, who are the fifth-best team in the league in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .437. They average 9.6 steals per game, good for tops in the league. Milwaukee makes opponents pay for turning the ball over, ranking third in points off turnovers with an average of 19.2 per game.
Following the Bucks’ latest win over Chicago, Milwaukee is still behind in the head-to-head record over the past 10 meetings, 2-8 SU. Additionally, the Bulls lead the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. Both Chicago and Milwaukee have led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last 10.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHI, ATS Winner – MIL, O/U – Under
Notes
Chicago ranks 15th in points per game with 100.8, while Milwaukee ranks eighth in points allowed with an average of 97.4 given up.
On average, Chicago puts up 101.9 points per home game (ranked 14th), while Milwaukee allows 98.6 points per away game (ranked ninth).
The Milwaukee Bucks won their last game by a two-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, the Chicago Bulls are 7-2. Milwaukee is 5-9 in close games this season.
The Milwaukee Bucks have a winning 31-12 record when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Chicago Bulls are 15-22 when they score less than 100.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Bucks are just 10-29 this season. Chicago is an outstanding 35-10 when registering triple digits.
The Bucks have an offensive rating of 100.1 (ranked 25th), while the Bulls rank 11th for their defensive rating of 101.4.
The Milwaukee Bucks have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with a FG% of 45.9%. When their opponents have a similar or higher FG%, the Chicago Bulls are 12-18.
On average, Chicago attempts 22.3 three pointers and Milwaukee attempts 18.3 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Bulls are 13-16 while the Bucks have a winning 4-1 record.
Chicago has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.65 this season (ranked 15th), while Milwaukee ranks lower at 22nd with an A/TO of 1.48.
The Chicago Bulls are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, earning 45.7 rebounds per game (ranked third). The Milwaukee Bucks rank 24th, rebounding 42.1 times each game.
Chicago is ranked seventh in defensive rebounds, while Milwaukee ranks 17th in offensive rebounds.
On average, the Bucks force a turnover rate of 17.0%, ranked first in the NBA. When the Bulls turn over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 10-6 record.
