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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick 09/17/18

Cubs vs Reds
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs are paying a visit to Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET and WGN is in line to televise this NL matchup.

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Vegas is listing Chicago (+120) as the dog to Arizona (-130). The total sits at 7.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -120 and the under for +100. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -175 for the Cubs +1.5 runs and +155 for the Diamondbacks -1.5.

The Cubs are 87-62 SU and have gone 73-75 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 3.9 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 2.0 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread just once over its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 78-72 SU and 74-75 ATS. They’ve lost 5.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 2.6 units ATS. Arizona has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Arizona games have a 67-76-6 over/under record in 2018. Cubs games have gone under 80 times, gone over 65 times and pushed on three occasions.

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks is the projected starter for the visiting Cubs. Hendricks is 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA and 146 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Arizona this year.

The Diamondbacks are putting the ball in the left hand of Patrick Corbin (11-5, 3.00 ERA), who has 230 strikeouts and 42 walks as well as a 1.02 WHIP. Corbin is 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 1.29 ERA in one start against Chicago this year.

As a unit, Arizona’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.58 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 8.1 K/9.

The Arizona offense is putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .200/.260/.413 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Diamondbacks’ hitters have been led by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and left fielder David Peralta. Goldschmidt is slashing .299/.400/.555 with 33 home runs, 83 RBIs and 94 runs scored, while Peralta’s line sits at .298/.356/.523 with 28 homers, 82 RBIs and 73 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.81 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.30, along with a WHIP of 1.35.

The Cubs offense has slashed .260/.338/.414 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game this season, including 2.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s offense has been led by second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Baez is slashing .294/.328/.563 with 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, 93 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo (.277/.374/.469) has produced 24 homers, 92 RBIs and 66 runs scored.

The Cubs have gained 2.7 units and are 16-16 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 15 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have lost 3.9 units and are 49-48 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 45 of those games, compared to 49 that’ve gone under.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The under has cashed in three of Arizona’s last seven games.

The Diamondbacks have dropped four of their last five games SU.

Chicago has recorded 16.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 14.8 over its last five.

The Cubs have hit three home runs in their last 10 games, including two over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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