In the third of a four-game series between the Chicago Cubs (32-27) and the Cincinnati Reds (32-27) at Wrigley Field, Kyle Hendricks (2-2, 3.96 ERA) and Mike Leake (3-4, 4.29 ERA) take the mound. The Reds won the last game 5-4 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 13 and will air on FOX.
In his most recent outing, Hendricks pitched 5.0 innings, giving up two runs (one unearned) and striking out four in a 6-3 victory over the Nationals. Kris Bryant (.282, 34 Rs, 7 HRs, 35 RBIs, 5 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his career against the Cubs, Leake is 8-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts. Todd Frazier (.290, 44 Rs, 18 HRs, 39 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Reds, going 2 for 5 yesterday with three runs, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base.
Chicago is a -142 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Cubs are 20-14 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +296. They are 3-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 46 steals. Chicago’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 3.12 team ERA at home. The Cubs are second in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 7.8 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .312 when playing as the underdog (10-22) and an overall money line of -643. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 5-5 SU and have a poor 0-4 record when they were an underdog to win. Cincinnati has been playing better lately, averaging 5.2 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. The Reds have racked up 59 steals on the year, making them the most threatening base-running team in the league. Switching gears to Cincinnati’s pitching staff, they allow just 8.3 hits per game, good for fifth in the NL.
The Cubs had the upper hand against the Reds in their previous seven games this season, earning a 5-2 record. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (Leake) in this game and have a 27-22 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Hendricks will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 20-24 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
In their last game, the Reds won by a margin of one run. The Cubs are 15-11 in one-run games. The Reds have a 9-10 record in close games.
Cincinnati has won 42% (10-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 54% (14-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cubs managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are coming in with a 14-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-22. The Cubs have a 7-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 12th in home runs, Chicago has hit 58 this season. Cincinnati ranks fifth with 72 home runs.
Chicago and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Chicago sits at 11th with 8.36 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 12th with 8.24.
Ranking 15th, Chicago is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.709). Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .721.
The Reds are 13-25 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cubs are 19-20 when they allow at least one homer.
