In the first of a three-game series between the Chicago Cubs (42-35) and the Miami Marlins (42-35) at Wrigley Field, Jason Hammel (5-3, 2.92 ERA) and Tom Koehler (6-4, 3.66 ERA) get the ball. The game starts at 2:20 p.m. ET on Friday, Jul. 3 and will air on CSN-CHI, FSN-FL and ESPN2.
Hammel is 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA, 45 strikeouts and 11 walks against the Marlins in his career. Anthony Rizzo (.297, 44 Rs, 15 HRs, 45 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Cubs, Koehler is 0-0 with a 4.76 ERA, nine strikeouts and three walks.
Chicago is a -167 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Cubs are 25-19 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +288. Chicago has averaged 2.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.9. They have been very patient at the plate during home games, leading the NL with an average of 3.5 walks per game. Chicago’s pitching staff can be considered one of the best in the NL. The Cubs have a team ERA of 3.42, one of the lowest in their league. The Cubs don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking second in the league with a 1.18 WHIP. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the NL with 8.7 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .378 when playing as the underdog (17-28) and an overall money line of -1,278. The Marlins will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Miami’s run production has dropped to 2.7 runs per game, compared to 3.9 for the duration of the season.
In their previous three games this season, the Marlins have a 2-1 record. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (Koehler) in this game and have a 34-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Hammel will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 24-37 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
Miami has won 37% (15-26) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 52% (16-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cubs are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Marlins have a 3-10 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 6-30. The Cubs have a 7-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 19th in home runs, Miami has hit 67 this season. Chicago ranks 13th with 73 home runs.
Ranking 11th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.33 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.63.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.687). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .702.
The Marlins are 17-29 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cubs are 22-23 when they allow at least one homer.
