Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.02 ERA) and Mike Fiers (0-3, 5.79 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Chicago Cubs (13-8) and the Milwaukee Brewers (5-18) at Wrigley Field. The Cubs won the last game 1-0 and Chicago leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 2:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 2 and can be seen on FSN-WI and CSN-CHI.
Arrieta is 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .224 this season. Anthony Rizzo (.324, 16 Rs, 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. When pitching against the Cubs, Fiers is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 27 strikeouts.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chicago, a big -180 favorite, takes on Milwaukee. The Cubs have an overall money line of +327 and a record as the favorite of 6-5. Chicago has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 5-3 and 9-5 records as the favorite and SU respectively. The Cubs have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the NL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. Chicago is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 25 bases. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Cubs. The 3.9 runs that Chicago’s pitchers allow per game makes them the fifth-ranked staff in the NL. The Cubs are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.12 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who rank second in the NL in strikeouts per game with 9.1.
Over in the other dugout, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,292 and a disappointing record of 3-10 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 3-7 record SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.2 runs per game by averaging 4.1 during that stretch.
The Cubs have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Cubs have a 10-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Fiers takes the mound. Arrieta (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 5-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
In their last game, the Brewers lost by a margin of one run. The Cubs are 5-4 in one-run games. The Brewers have a 1-3 record in close games.
Milwaukee has won 25% (2-6) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 62% (5-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cubs are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have a 1-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 2-14. The Cubs have a 3-7 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, Milwaukee has hit 15 this season. Chicago ranks 19th with 17 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.55 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.60.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.616). Chicago ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .714.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 3-14. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have a 6-5 record.
