The Chicago Cubs will head east to face their NL Central nemesis Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Chicago will be televising the matchup.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Chicago (-115) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+105). Bettors can gamble on the game’s total with odds listed at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at +130 for picking the Cubs -1.5 runs and -150 for the Pirates +1.5.
The Pirates are 61-60 straight up (SU) and 57-63 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 1.4 units for moneyline bettors while earning 9.3 units (ATS). Pittsburgh has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 69-50 SU and have gone 59-59 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 0.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 0.4 units ATS. Chicago is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has cashed in five of those seven.
Pittsburgh games have an over/under record of 57-55-8 in 2018. Chicago has been a decent under bet with a total record of 53-62-3.
Jon Lester will get the start for the visiting Cubs. The left-handed Lester is 12-5 with a 3.89 ERA and 105 strikeouts. He’s 2-1 with 17 strikeouts and a 4.70 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (four starts).
The Pirates will turn to righty Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42 ERA) to the mound. Nova has 88 strikeouts and 27 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.31. Nova is 2-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA across two starts against Chicago this year.
Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 4.21 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 7.67 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.32, along with a WHIP of 1.38.
The Cubs offense has slashed .264/.345/.420 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game this season, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo continue to lead Chicago’s offense. Baez is slashing .293/.325/.574 with 25 home runs, 89 RBIs, 74 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Rizzo (.265/.363/.444) has produced 18 homers, 78 RBIs and 49 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have yielded 4.5 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 47 games against divisional opponents, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.43 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.79.
The Pittsburgh offense has produced 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .261/.316/.392 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
Outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte have led the Pirates’ hitters this year. Dickerson is hitting .303/.334/.484 with 11 home runs, 46 RBIs and 52 runs scored, and Marte’s line sits at .276/.320/.469 with 17 homers, 57 RBIs, 63 runs and 28 steals.
The Cubs have lost 5.8 units and are 44-47 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 41 of those games, compared to 47 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 5.8 units and are 14-21 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has cashed in 22 of those games, compared to 12 that went under the total.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Chicago has logged 11 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Pittsburgh has 14 XBH over its last five.
The Pirates have dropped four of their last five games SU.
Pittsburgh has posted 22.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.0 over its last five.
The Cubs have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit 11 over their last 10.
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