Jon Lester (10-11, 3.46 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (89-63) take on Gerrit Cole (17-8, 2.64 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (93-60) in a game between two pitchers trying to reach 200 strikeouts. This is the first game of a three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Pirates come into this series riding a six-game winning streak. Action begins at 2:20 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 25 and can be seen on WLS, RTPT and MLBN.
Lester pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 4-3 defeat to the Cardinals. Cole went 7.0 innings, surrendering three runs and striking out nine in a 4-3 win over the Dodgers in his last outing. Andrew McCutchen (.296, 88 Rs, 22 HRs, 95 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Chicago is a -119 favorite against Pittsburgh and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is currently not available. The Cubs have recorded an overall money line of +1,167 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 64-37. Chicago has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 26-14 and 39-28 records as the favorite and SU respectively. Chicago leads the whole NL in walks, earning an average of 3.5 per game. Turning to the pitchers, the Cubs are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who lead the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
In games where it is the underdog, Pittsburgh has a 19-25 record and an overall money line of +2,096. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 7-17 record against NL Central foes, and a 6-4 record SU. The Pirates allow 3.7 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the NL Central Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.3 against division foes. The Pirates have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.2 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs lead the season series, 10-6. The Cubs have a 71-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Cole takes the mound. Lester (LHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a 17-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – ChC
Notes
In their last game, the Pirates won by a margin of one run. The Cubs are 32-20 in one-run games. The Pirates have a 35-17 record in close games.
Pittsburgh has won 52% (36-33) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 59% (36-25) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Cubs have a record of 49-37 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 61-9. The Pirates have a 67-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 14th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in runs, scoring 653 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 670.
Ranking 17th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 433 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at second with 530.
When the Cubs hit at least one home run, they are 63-28, well-matched with the Pirates who are 61-28 when hitting one or more homers.
